宝城期货原油早报-2025-12-03-20251203

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures are expected to run in a moderately bullish pattern on Wednesday. The market is influenced by a combination of factors, with the weakening of geopolitical premiums due to the potential cooling - off of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the improvement of demand expectations as the northern hemisphere enters the winter consumption peak season [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Time - cycle Views on Crude Oil 2601 - Short - term: The short - term view (within one week) is that the crude oil 2601 will be in a sideways pattern [1]. - Medium - term: The medium - term view (two weeks to one month) is that the crude oil 2601 will be in a sideways pattern [1]. - Intraday: The intraday view is that the crude oil 2601 will be moderately bullish [1]. 3.2. Price Movement Calculation Rules - For varieties with night trading sessions, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price, and the price change is calculated based on these [2]. 3.3. Strength Classification Rules - A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline between 0 - 1% is considered moderately weak, a rise between 0 - 1% is considered moderately strong, and a rise of more than 1% is considered strong. The moderately strong/moderately weak classification only applies to intraday views [3][4]. 3.4. Driving Logic of Crude Oil (SC) Price Movement - The potential cooling - off of the Russia - Ukraine conflict with US mediation is weakening the geopolitical premium for international oil prices, thus reducing the impetus for further price rebounds. However, the approaching winter consumption peak season in the northern hemisphere is improving the demand outlook, and the future supply - demand structure of the oil market is expected to improve. On Tuesday night, domestic crude oil futures showed a slightly bearish sideways movement with a slight decline, but are expected to continue the moderately bullish trend on Wednesday [5].