宝城期货煤焦早报-20251203

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For both coking coal and coke, the short - term and medium - term views are “oscillation”, and the intraday view is “oscillation on the strong side”. The overall reference view is an “oscillation mindset” [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - Price Trend and View: The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are “oscillation”, “oscillation”, and “oscillation on the strong side” respectively, with an overall “oscillation mindset” [1][5]. - Driving Logic: The supply side is the core factor driving the market. The National Development and Reform Commission's emphasis on energy supply during the heating season and stable domestic production and increased imports have weakened the supply - side support for coal prices. However, due to the December Politburo economic meeting and the expected year - end coal mine production cuts, there is resistance to further price drops, and the main contract has rebounded at the lower edge of the previous oscillation range [5]. Coke (J) - Price Trend and View: The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are “oscillation”, “oscillation”, and “oscillation on the strong side” respectively, with an overall “oscillation mindset” [1][6]. - Driving Logic: On December 1st, the first round of price cuts for coke was implemented. The supply is increasing, with the daily coke output increasing by 1.19 million tons to 110.08 million tons. The demand is under pressure, as the daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 million tons to 234.68 million tons, and the steel mill profitability rate dropped to 35.06%. Due to the uncertainty in coking coal supply in December, there is resistance to further price drops for coke futures, and the main contract has rebounded at the lower edge of the oscillation range [6].