新世纪期货交易提示-20251203

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Volatile [2] - Glass: Weakly volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2 - year treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5 - year treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10 - year treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Strongly volatile [4] - Silver: Strongly volatile [4] - Logs: Bottoming out with volatility [5] - Pulp: Volatile [5] - Offset paper: Volatile [5] - Soybean oil: Range - bound [7] - Palm oil: Range - bound [7] - Rapeseed oil: Range - bound [7] - Soybean meal: Weakly volatile [7] - Rapeseed meal: Weakly volatile [7] - Soybean No.2: Weakly volatile [7] - Soybean No.1: Weakly volatile [7] - Live pigs: Strongly volatile [8] - Rubber: Volatile [11] - PX: Widely volatile [11] - PTA: Volatile [11] - MEG: Weakly volatile [11] - PF: Await - and - see [11] Core Views - The overall market shows a complex and volatile trend, with different products affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationship, policy, and international situation. For example, the iron ore market is in a supply - surplus pattern, and the price is volatile at a high level; the gold price is supported by central bank purchases and geopolitical risks, and the short - term fluctuations are affected by the Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment [2][4][6] Summary by Category Black Industry - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments increased by 44.7 million tons to 33.232 billion tons, 47 - port foreign ore arrivals decreased by 155.5 million tons to 27.84 billion tons, and daily average hot metal production decreased by 1.6 million tons to 2.3468 billion tons. The demand core lies in the real estate, and the new construction has dropped to the 2005 level. The supply - surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and the price is volatile at a high level [2] - Coking coal and coke: On December 1st, the first round of coke price cuts was implemented, and there are still expectations of further cuts. After the previous continuous decline, the valuation is reasonable, and there was a bottom - rebound on Monday. The market is worried about the resumption of production on the supply side. Steel and coke enterprises still have restocking needs, and the price is supported at a low level in the short term [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The downstream demand is sluggish, and the winter restocking has not started yet. The core lies in steel demand, and the real estate new construction has dropped to the 2005 level. The steel price depends on the implementation of production reduction and anti - "involution" policies. The price is expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate [2] - Glass: There are supply - side disturbances. The market expects three production lines in Hubei to be cold - repaired in December, but there are rumors of a delay. The float glass inventory has decreased, but the real - estate completion decline drags down the demand. The price is weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to the cold - repair progress and macro situation [2] - Soda ash: The report does not provide detailed information other than the investment rating of "volatile" [2] Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.48%, the SSE 50 index fell by 0.51%, the CSI 500 index fell by 0.87%, and the CSI 1000 index fell by 1.00%. The market has short - term adjustments, but the medium - term trend is still optimistic [4] - Treasury bonds: The central bank increased the net investment of medium - and long - term liquidity tools in November. The 10 - year treasury bond yield rose by 1bp, and the market trend rebounded slightly [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment are short - term disturbance factors, and the long - term price is supported by the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks [4][6] Light Industry - Logs: The average daily port shipment volume decreased last week. The import volume in October showed different trends, and the expected arrival volume decreased significantly. The inventory pressure has weakened, and the price is expected to bottom out with volatility [5] - Pulp: The spot market price became stronger on the previous trading day, and the cost support increased, but the paper mills' acceptance of high - price pulp is low, and the price is expected to be volatile [5] - Offset paper: The spot market price was partially raised on the previous trading day. The supply is stable, the orders are expected to increase, and the price is expected to be volatile [5] Oilseeds and Oils - Oils: The US soybean crushing reached a record high, but the US biodiesel policy is uncertain. The palm oil production and inventory in Malaysia in October were higher than expected, and the export in November decreased. The domestic oil supply is abundant, and the price is expected to be range - bound [7] - Meals: The US soybean supply is structurally tight, but the global supply is relatively loose. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [7] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight is declining. The supply is abundant, the demand is limited, and the settlement price is decreasing. The slaughtering rate increased slightly but is expected to weaken next week. The average weekly price is expected to continue to decline [8] Soft Commodities and Chemicals - Rubber: The raw material price in Yunnan is stable, and the output in Hainan decreased due to temperature. The supply in Thailand and Vietnam is affected by rain. The inventory is increasing seasonally, and the price is expected to be widely volatile [11] - PX: The crude oil supply is in surplus, and the price is falling. The PX supply is high, but the downstream demand is good, and the price is widely volatile [11] - PTA: The cost is loosening, the short - term supply - demand situation has improved, but the industry is seasonally weakening, and the price is expected to follow the cost [11] - MEG: The long - term inventory pressure exists, and the short - term price is weakly volatile [11] - PF: The market is expected to be narrowly adjusted under the game of multiple factors [11]