甲醇日评20251203：继续上行空间或有限-20251203

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The upward space of the methanol 01 contract is quite limited. The main reasons are that the overall profit of downstream MTO is poor, and if the methanol price rises further, it may lead to downstream parking and negative demand feedback; downstream replenishment willingness is weak due to profit levels and high inventory, and inland profit is poor, which restricts the performance of inland methanol prices [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - Methanol futures prices: MA01 decreased by 4 yuan/ton (-0.19%) to 2132 yuan/ton; MA05 remained unchanged at 2232 yuan/ton; MA09 decreased by 9 yuan/ton (-0.40%) to 2228 yuan/ton [1] - Methanol spot prices: Increases in various regions, such as 12.5 yuan/ton (0.59%) in Taicang, 10 yuan/ton (0.45%) in Shandong, 15 yuan/ton (0.72%) in Guangdong, etc. [1] - Coal spot prices: Decreases in various regions, such as 2.5 yuan/ton (-0.42%) for Bu Shui Duo Si Q5500, 10 yuan/ton (-1.50%) for Datong Q5500, etc. [1] - Industrial natural gas prices: Remained unchanged in Hohhot and Chongqing [1] Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol profit increased by 72.6 yuan/ton (42.91%) to 241.8 yuan/ton; natural gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at - 1270 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream profit: Decreases in most downstream products, such as 13.8 yuan/ton (-6.87%) for Northwest MTO, 22 yuan/ton (-2.78%) for East China MTO, etc. [1] Important Information - Domestic: The main methanol contract MA2601 showed a strong sideways trend, opening at 2134 yuan/ton, closing at 2132 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 1.1983 million lots and open interest of 0.9786 million lots, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - Foreign: Six methanol plants with a total capacity of 9.9 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are still under maintenance, and the remaining plants are operating at low loads. The daily methanol output has dropped to 14,400 tons. Attention should be paid to the number of loading ports in December [1] Trading Strategy - Hold the short put option of the 01 contract until maturity [1]