宝城期货国债期货早报-20251203

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the expectation of interest rate cuts has declined, while the long - term expectation of a loose monetary policy remains. Overall, treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has declined, while the long - term loose expectation remains [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, treasury bond futures fluctuated and slightly retraced. The manufacturing PMI in November showed strong resilience, so there is no strong need for a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. However, in the long run, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists. From the perspective of the monetary policy to stabilize demand, the future monetary policy environment tends to be loose, which strongly supports treasury bond futures. In general, treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [5].