研究所日报-20251203

International Developments - China and Russia held strategic security consultations, enhancing mutual trust and reaching consensus on key issues, including Japan-related matters[2] - Russia's issuance of RMB bonds is expected to promote the internationalization of the RMB and boost Sino-Russian trade[2] Domestic Policy Changes - As of December 1, 27 provinces in China have implemented direct payment of maternity allowances to individuals, covering over 90% of the coordinated areas[2] - The declining birth rate in China poses a challenge to economic growth potential, necessitating observation of the policy's effectiveness[2] Monetary Policy Insights - On December 2, the central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 156.3 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 145.8 billion yuan for the day[3] - The central bank is expected to continue net withdrawals, with a significant 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase maturing on Friday[3] Market Performance - The A-share market saw declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.42% and the Shenzhen Component down 0.68%, with total trading volume at 1.59343 trillion yuan, a decrease of 280.51 billion yuan from the previous trading day[4] - The 10-year government bond yield was reported at 1.8459%, with a change of +1.2 basis points[5] Currency and Interest Rates - The US dollar index closed at 99.3208, down 0.09%, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 50 basis points against the dollar, closing at 7.067[5]