纯苯、苯乙烯日报：纯苯淡季承压震荡，苯乙烯供应回升-20251203

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene is expected to maintain a weak reality and strong expectation co - existing shock pattern in the short term. December is the most pressured period, and it may gradually turn to a weak and stable pattern later [2]. - The core contradiction in the styrene market lies in high inventory and weak demand. It may maintain a weak consolidation in the short term, and attention should be paid to the supply recovery rhythm and downstream stocking intensity [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - On December 2nd, the styrene main contract closed up 0.23% at 6,564 yuan/ton, with a basis of 51 (+0 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed down 0.02% at 5,454 yuan/ton [2]. - On December 2nd, Brent crude oil closed at $59.3 per barrel (+$0.7 per barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $63.2 per barrel (+$0.8 per barrel), and the spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,320 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [2]. - Styrene port inventory was 164,000 tons (+16,000 tons), a 10.7% month - on - month increase; pure benzene port inventory was 164,000 tons (+17,000 tons), an 11.6% month - on - month increase [2]. - Styrene production and capacity utilization fluctuated slightly month - on - month. Currently, the weekly styrene output is 335,000 tons (-8,000 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate is 67.3% (-1.7%) [2]. - The overall demand of the downstream 3S industries has recovered. The EPS capacity utilization rate is 54.7% (-1.5%), the ABS capacity utilization rate is 71.2% (-1.2%), and the PS capacity utilization rate is 57.6% (+1.7%) [2]. (2) Views - Pure benzene: The short - term shock pattern of weak reality and strong expectation will continue. The emotional trading brought by overseas gasoline blending has cooled down. The pressure of full storage is rising, and the demand is still weak. The supply is expected to shrink in the long term, and the import volume after January is highly controversial. December is the most difficult period, and it may gradually stabilize later [2]. - Styrene: The core contradiction is high inventory and weak demand. The supply is expected to recover, and the supply - demand balance may shift from tight to wide. The demand remains in the off - season, and the price support is weak. It may maintain a weak consolidation in the short term [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene & Pure Benzene Prices - On December 2nd, the styrene futures main contract price increased by 0.23% to 6,564 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 0.03% to 6,654 yuan/ton. The pure benzene futures main contract price decreased by 0.02% to 5,454 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price remained unchanged at 5,320 yuan/ton [5]. (2) Styrene & Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - From November 14th to November 21st, China's styrene production decreased by 0.43% to 343,000 tons, and pure benzene production decreased by 1.67% to 447,000 tons [6]. - During the same period, the styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 15.16% to 148,000 tons, the domestic styrene factory inventory decreased by 0.70% to 188,000 tons, and the national pure benzene port inventory increased by 30.09% to 147,000 tons [6]. (3) Operating Rate - From November 14th to November 21st, the capacity utilization rate of styrene in pure benzene downstream decreased by 0.30 to 69.0, the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam increased by 2.18 to 88.2, the capacity utilization rate of phenol increased by 11.46 to 78.7, and the capacity utilization rate of aniline decreased by 4.49 to 75.7 [7]. - For styrene downstream, the EPS capacity utilization rate increased by 4.64 to 56.3, the VBS capacity utilization rate increased by 0.60 to 72.4, and the PS capacity utilization rate increased by 0.50 to 55.9 [7]. 3. Industry News - Japan's interest - rate hike prospects are stirring up the US market [8]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 89.2% [8]. - US President Trump said Kevin Hassett is a "potential" Fed chairman [8]. - US API crude oil inventories increased by 2.48 million barrels in the week ending November 28th, compared with a decrease of 1.859 million barrels in the previous week [8]. - Trump said on December 2nd that he would strike any country suspected of "smuggling drugs" into the US, including Venezuela [8].