光大期货金融期货日报-20251203

Group 1: Research Views - The stock index market showed an overall volatile adjustment yesterday, with all three major indices declining. Over 3,700 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets closed lower, and trading volume exceeded 16 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.68%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.69%. The short - term outlook for the index is expected to be volatile [1]. - For the stock index, the liquidity - driven market since June has ended, and the market refocuses on fundamentals. New productivity themes led by AI have optimistic growth expectations for the next three years, especially in the upstream hardware manufacturing of the technology sector. However, these themes have had large increases since June and lack event catalysts near the end of the year, entering a volatile phase since November. Traditional economic sectors like consumer and cyclical themes are in a slow recovery and are unlikely to enter a fundamental bull market in the short term [1]. - In the Treasury bond market, on December 2nd, the central bank conducted 156.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases with a winning bid rate of 1.4%. With 302.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, there was a net withdrawal of 145.8 billion yuan. The bond market showed a situation of "good news exhausted", with Treasury bond yields rising slightly and the yield curve steepening. In December, with loose funds but weak expectations of interest - rate cuts, the economy showing marginal weakness but overall resilience, and inflation continuing a mild recovery, Treasury bonds are expected to continue a narrow - range volatile trend [1][2]. Group 2: Daily Price Changes - In stock index futures, on December 2nd, IH decreased by 0.50% to 2,971.4, IF decreased by 0.43% to 4,535.8, IC decreased by 0.70% to 6,982.2, and IM decreased by 0.69% to 7,239.6 compared to December 1st [3]. - For stock indices, on December 2nd, the Shanghai 50 Index decreased by 0.51% to 2,978.5, the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.48% to 4,554.3, the CSI 500 Index decreased by 0.87% to 7,040.3, and the CSI 1000 Index decreased by 1.00% to 7,313.2 compared to December 1st [3]. - In Treasury bond futures, on December 2nd, TS decreased by 0.02% to 102.39, TF decreased by 0.07% to 105.77, T decreased by 0.06% to 107.98, and TL decreased by 0.42% to 113.89 compared to December 1st [3]. Group 3: Market News - The Shanghai second - hand housing market showed a "tail - end rally" in November. After the implementation of the "Shanghai Six - Point Policy" on August 25th, the market has been steadily improving. In November, the online signing volume of second - hand housing (including commercial properties) reached a new high in the past seven months and ranked third highest in the year. The market features a "moderate recovery with structural differentiation", with an increased proportion of low - priced and high - value housing transactions, a rising rent - to - price ratio for old and shabby houses, and a decline in the number of listed second - hand houses [5]. Group 4: Chart Analysis 4.1 Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, as well as the monthly basis trends of IH, IF, IC, IM [7][8]. 4.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the trends of Treasury bond futures main contracts, Treasury bond spot yields, 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures basis, 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][17][19]. 4.3 Exchange Rates - The report offers charts of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the central parity rate of the euro against the RMB, 1 - month and 3 - month forward US dollar against the RMB, 1 - month and 3 - month forward euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, euro against the US dollar, pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the Japanese yen [22][24][26]. Group 5: Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of the macro - finance research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with futures qualification number F3060829 and futures trading consulting qualification number Z0015271 [31]. - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, is responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, key industry sector research, index financial report analysis, and market capital tracking, with futures qualification number F03087149 and futures trading consulting qualification number Z0019537 [31].