宏观金融数据日报-20251203

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - After several days of recovery and rebound, the market sentiment has become cautious, leading to a significant contraction in A-share trading volume and an adjustment in stock index fluctuations. The upcoming Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference in mid - to late December will provide guidance for next year's policy focus and market capital allocation. The current market adjustment offers opportunities for the stock index to rise further next year, and traders can consider gradually establishing long positions during the adjustment phase and leveraging the discount structure of stock index futures to increase the probability of long - term investment success [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Interest Rate Data - DR001 closed at 1.30, down 0.87bp; DR007 closed at 1.44, down 1.71bp; GC001 closed at 1.41, down 5.50bp; GC007 closed at 1.49, down 0.50bp; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.58, unchanged; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50, unchanged; 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.36, up 1.40bp; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.56, up 0.20bp; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.83, up 0.30bp; 10 - year US treasury bond remained at 4.10 [3]. Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 156.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%, with a bid volume, winning bid volume all at 156.3 billion yuan. With 302.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal for the day was 145.8 billion yuan. This week, 1.5118 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature in the central bank's open market, and 1 trillion yuan of 91 - day repurchase will mature on Friday [3][4]. Stock Index and Futures Data - The CSI 300 closed at 4554, down 0.48%; the SSE 50 closed at 2978, down 0.51%; the CSI 500 closed at 7040, down 0.87%; the CSI 1000 closed at 7313, down 1.00%. The trading volume of the two - stock markets was 1.5934 trillion yuan, a contraction of 280.5 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors declined, with pharmaceutical commerce, shipbuilding, railway and highway, and packaging materials sectors leading the gains, while energy metals, precious metals, biological products, small metals, motors, education, and non - metal materials sectors leading the losses. In terms of futures, IF contracts showed corresponding price and volume changes [5]. Futures Premium and Discount Situation - IF's current - month contract had a premium of 8.74%, next - month contract 6.51%, current - quarter contract 4.25%, and next - quarter contract 4.33%; IH's current - month contract had a premium of 5.09%, next - month contract 3.61%, current - quarter contract 1.66%, and next - quarter contract 1.67%; IC's current - month contract had a premium of 17.72%, next - month contract 13.01%, current - quarter contract 11.06%, and next - quarter contract 11.40%; IM's current - month contract had a premium of 21.60%, next - month contract 16.39%, current - quarter contract 14.10%, and next - quarter contract 13.65% [7].