宏观日报：上游价格分化-20251203

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The OECD reports that global economic growth is better than expected, with AI investment offsetting the impact of US tariffs, and has raised growth forecasts for some major economies. The OECD predicts 3.2% global growth in 2025 (unchanged from the previous forecast), 2.9% in 2026 (unchanged), and 3.1% in 2027 (new forecast). It also forecasts China's economic growth at 5% in 2025, up from the previous 4.9% [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes improving people's livelihoods, promoting common prosperity, implementing the employment - first strategy, and improving the income distribution system [1] 3. Summary by Industry Upstream - Energy: Liquefied natural gas and crude oil prices are oscillating downward [2] - Agriculture: Egg and palm oil prices are continuously rising [2] - Chemicals: Urea prices are increasing, while polyethylene prices are slightly declining [2] - Price Index: On December 2, the spot - price of eggs was 6.6 yuan/kg (up 3.48% year - on - year), palm oil was 8,670 yuan/ton (up 2.36% year - on - year), WTI crude oil was $63.3/barrel (up 0.82% year - on - year), Brent crude oil was $63.2/barrel (up 0.72% year - on - year), and liquefied natural gas was 4,054 yuan/ton (down 1.31% year - on - year). Urea was 1,702.5 yuan/ton (up 2.87% year - on - year), and polyethylene was 6,905 yuan/ton (down 1.15% year - on - year) [37] Midstream - Chemicals: The operating rates of PX, PTA, and urea are decreasing, and the urea operating rate is at a three - year high for the same period [2] - Energy: The coal consumption of power plants is at a low level [2] - Infrastructure: The asphalt operating rate is continuously decreasing [2] Downstream - Real Estate: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities are continuously warming up [3] - Services: The number of domestic and international flights has decreased [3]