新能源及有色金属日报：几内亚GIC矿业恢复运营预期提高-20251203

Report Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Core View - The overall domestic supply - demand fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly. Overseas production has been reduced due to an electrical equipment accident in an Icelandic electrolytic aluminum plant, and power costs still pose a great pressure on overseas electrolytic aluminum operations. Consumption shows good growth and is expected to enter the peak season from November to December. With positive macro - factors, the decline of aluminum prices is limited, and the upward space may open if the social inventory is smoothly depleted [6]. - The GIC in Guinea may resume bauxite mining if it pays the concession fee, increasing the expectation of Axis mine's复产. The domestic alumina futures price has dropped rapidly, which may be beneficial for the digestion of warehouse receipts. However, there are few bullish factors in the fundamentals, and the current over - supply situation persists. The alumina valuation is low, and the risk of uncertainty in Guinea's bauxite supply needs to be guarded against [7][8]. Key Data Summary Aluminum Spot - On December 2, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,710 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium/discount was - 50 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 21,580 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount was - 180 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 21,610 yuan/ton, a change of - 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount was - 145 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On December 2, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,870 yuan/ton, closed at 21,910 yuan/ton, a change of 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 21,940 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 21,755 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 177,992 lots, and the position was 258,440 lots [2]. Inventory - As of December 2, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 596,000 tons, with no change from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 66,833 tons, with no change from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 535,900 tons, a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On December 2, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,825 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,760 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,850 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,885 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,900 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 314 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On December 2, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,687 yuan/ton, closed at 2,670 yuan/ton, a change of - 12 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change rate of - 0.45%, with a maximum price of 2,697 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2,661 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 177,845 lots, and the position was 358,708 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On December 2, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,200 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,900 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 74,600 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 59,200 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,069 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 269 yuan/ton [5].