油脂日报：油脂走势分化，盘面持续震荡-20251203

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday, and the oil market showed differentiation. Due to the arrival of the seasonal production - reduction cycle and the recent low - price stimulation of consumption, the growth rate of palm oil inventory accumulation slowed down, and the palm oil price fluctuated strongly [3] Market Analysis Futures Prices - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 8,720.00 yuan/ton, a change of +68 yuan or +0.79% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,288.00 yuan/ton, with no change; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,745.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 25.00 yuan or -0.26% [1] Spot Prices - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,660.00 yuan/ton, a change of +40.00 yuan or +0.46%, and the spot basis was P01 - 60.00, a change of -28.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,440.00 yuan/ton, with no change, and the spot basis was Y01 + 152.00, with no change; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,030.00 yuan/ton, a change of -40.00 yuan or -0.40%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 285.00, a change of -15.00 yuan [1] Market News - From January to October 2025, Indonesia exported about 20.2 billion US dollars of palm oil (including crude palm oil and processed products). The total export volume of palm oil from January to October 2025 reached 19.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.83%. In October alone, the export volume was 1.91 million tons. In October, the global palm oil price increased by 0.80% month - on - month to 1,045.04 US dollars per ton [2] - The US Soybean Association is actively seeking ways to expand the market demand for US soybeans. The dairy industry is one of the livestock sectors that have recently entered this field. Traders said that India's soybean oil imports in November decreased by 12% month - on - month to 400,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 44% month - on - month to 145,000 tons, the lowest level in two years. India's edible oil imports in November decreased by 11.5% month - on - month to 1.18 million tons, the lowest level in seven months [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (January shipment) was 1,186 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (March shipment) was 1,125 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 35 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day. The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (January shipment) was 1,105 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (March shipment) was 1,085 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]