美日央行路径分化，关注中央经济工作会议

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - During the current inflation expectation game phase, focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty. Also, pay attention to the impact of geopolitical events on the energy market and the "anti - involution" opportunities in various sectors [4] Market Analysis - Domestic policy expectations are rising. Multiple policy - related meetings were held in November. China's October export, investment, consumption, and industrial growth slowed down. The November official manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the central bank net - injected 50 billion yuan through open - market treasury bond transactions. As of December 2, local government bond issuance exceeded 10 trillion yuan. On December 2, A - share markets adjusted, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.42% [2] - The probability of a Fed rate cut in December has increased from less than 30% on November 20th to over 70%. Some Fed officials support a December rate cut. US economic data shows mixed performance. The European Central Bank warns of financial stability risks, and the market expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates soon [3] Commodity Analysis - In the black sector, pay attention to "anti - involution" due to weak downstream demand. The non - ferrous sector is limited by long - term supply and boosted by global easing expectations. In the energy sector, monitor the peace talks' impact on oil prices and OPEC's additional production cuts. In the chemical sector, focus on the "anti - involution" space of certain products. For agricultural products, watch China's procurement plans and weather expectations. After clearing short - term adjustment risks, consider buying precious metals at low prices [4] Key News - China's central bank net - injected 50 billion yuan through open - market treasury bond transactions in November. A - share markets adjusted on December 2, with over 3,700 stocks falling. US manufacturing index declined, and Japanese bond yields reached new highs. Eurozone CPI rebounded. Spot silver rose 4%. The US and UK reached a pharmaceutical pricing agreement [6] Charts - There are multiple charts related to economic indicators such as the Citi Economic Surprise Index, real - estate transaction areas, steel consumption, Sino - US bond spreads, exchange rates, and the dollar index [7]