供需弱势压制反弹空间

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; LL and PP 01 - 05 spread trading: Sell high and buy back; 05 - 09 spread trading: Buy low and sell high; Cross - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand weakness restricts the rebound space of the polyolefin market. For PE, the supply is abundant while the demand is in the off - season, resulting in a limited short - term rebound. For PP, the weak supply - demand situation persists in the short term, and the expected rebound height of the futures price is limited [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,831 yuan/ton (+28), and that of the PP main contract is 6,410 yuan/ton (+13). The LL spot prices in North China and East China are 6,750 yuan/ton (+0) and 6,880 yuan/ton (+0) respectively. The PP spot price in East China is 6,350 yuan/ton (+0). The LL basis in North China is - 81 yuan/ton (-28), in East China is 49 yuan/ton (-28), and the PP basis in East China is - 60 yuan/ton (-13) [1] - Upstream Supply: The PE operating rate is 84.5% (+1.8%), and the PP operating rate is 78.1% (-0.1%) [1] - Production Profit: The PE oil - based production profit is 316.1 yuan/ton (+4.5), the PP oil - based production profit is - 453.9 yuan/ton (+4.5), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 596.6 yuan/ton (-35.0) [1] - Imports and Exports: The LL import profit is 44.1 yuan/ton (+3.0), the PP import profit is - 230.6 yuan/ton (+2.9), and the PP export profit is - 22.4 US dollars/ton (-0.4) [1] - Downstream Demand: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 49.0% (-0.9%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 50.7% (-0.2%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.1% (-0.1%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 62.6% (+0.0%) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: In the first half of 2026, the domestic PE production capacity expansion slows down significantly. The supply pressure mainly comes from the high output of existing plants. The supply is continuously abundant, while the downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the inventory - clearing pressure is large. The overall downstream demand shows a downward trend, and the cost support is relatively limited. The short - term rebound space of plastics is limited [2] - PP: The weak supply - demand situation persists in the short term, and the basis continues to fluctuate at a low level. The supply pressure mainly comes from existing plants. The downstream overall operating rate is expected to weaken gradually, and the demand follow - up is insufficient. The expected rebound height of the futures price is limited, and attention should be paid to the cost - end disturbances [3]