中辉黑色观点-20251203

Report Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Low-level range operation [3] - Coke: First round of price cut implemented, range operation [8] - Coking Coal: Supply still has disruptions, maintain range operation [12] - Ferroalloys: Limited supply-demand contradictions, maintain range operation [15] Core Views of the Report - Steel: The fundamentals of rebar are weakly balanced, with slightly decreased production and apparent demand, and decreased inventory. The production of hot-rolled coils has increased slightly, the apparent demand has decreased slightly, and the inventory is at the highest level in the same period in recent years. Both are expected to fluctuate in the short term [4][5] - Iron Ore: Iron water production is expected to decrease further, the fundamentals have weakened, and a cautious bearish view is taken [6][7] - Coke: After the fourth round of price increase, the profits of coke enterprises have improved, and inventories have accumulated. Steel mills have initiated the first round of price cuts. It is expected to follow coking coal in the short term [10] - Coking Coal: Domestic raw coal production has decreased, supply disruptions exist, and the market transaction is light. It is expected to repair the basis and maintain range operation [13] - Manganese Silicon: The supply in the production area is decreasing, the demand has improved marginally, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The upward trend lacks sustainability [16][17] - Ferrosilicon: The industry's losses have deepened, but production is relatively stable, demand has increased slightly, and inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks. The upward trend lacks sustainability [16][17] Summary by Variety Rebar - Variety View: Production and apparent demand decreased slightly, inventory decreased, and the fundamentals are weakly balanced. Iron water production decreased, and steel mills' willingness to reduce production is low [4] - Operation Suggestion: Short-term lack of strong driving force, may fluctuate in the range [5] Hot-rolled Coil - Variety View: Production increased slightly, apparent demand decreased slightly, and inventory is at the highest level in the same period in recent years [4] - Operation Suggestion: Iron water production decreased slightly, steel mills' willingness to reduce production is not strong, and it may fluctuate in the range in the short term [5] Iron Ore - Variety View: Iron water production is expected to decrease further, steel mills are destocking, ports are increasing inventory, and the fundamentals have weakened [6] - Operation Suggestion: A cautious bearish view is taken, and long positions should avoid the edge for the time being [7] Coke - Variety View: After the fourth round of price increase, the profits of coke enterprises have improved, inventories have accumulated, and steel mills have initiated the first round of price cuts. Iron water production has decreased, and most steel mills have maintenance plans [10] - Operation Suggestion: A cautious bearish view is taken [11] Coking Coal - Variety View: Domestic raw coal production has decreased, supply disruptions exist, the market transaction is light, and downstream restocking needs to be concerned [13] - Operation Suggestion: A cautious bearish view is taken [14] Manganese Silicon - Variety View: The supply in the production area is decreasing, the demand has improved marginally, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The new round of steel procurement has not started yet [16] - Operation Suggestion: The short-term cost has certain support, but the upward trend lacks sustainability. It is recommended to be cautious [17] Ferrosilicon - Variety View: The industry's losses have deepened, but production is relatively stable, demand has increased slightly, and inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks. The new round of steel procurement has not started yet [16] - Operation Suggestion: The supply-demand contradiction is not significant, but the upward trend lacks sustainability. It is expected to operate in the range [17]