海外升水再次走高

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The overseas spot premium for zinc has reached $268 per ton, expanding export profits. The domestic spot premium has shown a positive trend. The fundamentals are generally favorable, with a continuous decline in domestic social inventories. In November, the smelting output decreased month - on - month and was significantly lower than expected. The spot premium has been continuously repaired, reflecting both consumption intensity and supply tightness. The TC at home and abroad has been declining. High - altitude mines in China have entered the winter shutdown and maintenance period. The rapid decline in TC prices and the decline in absolute prices have led to potential losses in smelting comprehensive costs, and the supply - side pressure is expected to decline in the later stage. The fundamentals have turned from bearish to bullish, and the current zinc valuation is low. The expectation of an interest rate cut in the US in December has increased, and the future consumption is optimistic [4]. Summary by Related Catalog Important Data Spot - The LME zinc spot premium is $268.39 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 180 yuan/ton to 22,740 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 30 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 160 yuan/ton to 22,680 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 30 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 180 yuan/ton to 22,670 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 5 yuan/ton [1]. Futures - On December 2, 2025, the main contract of SHFE zinc opened at 22,650 yuan/ton, closed at 22,745 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 122,766 lots, and the position was 106,325 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22,765 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,640 yuan/ton [2]. Inventory - As of December 2, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 144,300 tons, a decrease of 3,800 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 52,375 tons, an increase of 350 tons from the previous trading day [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Calendar spread positive arbitrage [5]