新能源及有色金属日报：市场有所回暖，沪镍不锈钢小幅上探-20251203

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, the supply - demand imbalance persists with high inventory and oversupply. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, but the downside is limited as it has reached a 5 - year low [1][2]. - For the stainless - steel market, due to low demand, high inventory, and a declining cost center, the price is also expected to stay in a low - level range. Similar to nickel, the current price is at a 5 - year low with limited downside [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - Market Analysis - Futures: On December 2, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 117,800 yuan/ton and closed at 118,050 yuan/ton, up 0.49% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 88,522 (- 57,307) lots, and the open interest was 121,924 (- 967) lots. The recent rebound is a minor repair after previous over - decline, driven by macro - level easing expectations such as the Fed's rate - cut anticipation and improved Sino - US relations. However, the supply - demand imbalance remains, and there is obvious support near the cost line [1]. - Nickel Ore: The nickel ore market is quiet with stable prices. In the Philippines, mines are mainly fulfilling previous orders, and the shipping efficiency is okay. Downstream nickel - iron prices are weak, squeezing iron - plant profits, leading to cautious raw - material procurement and some plants considering production cuts. In Indonesia, the December (Phase 1) domestic trade benchmark price dropped by 0.52 - 0.91 dollars/wet ton, and the domestic trade premium is mostly in the range of +25 - 26 [1]. - Spot: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was average due to consecutive price rebounds, and the premium of refined nickel brands remained stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 32,351 (- 371) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 253,074 (- 1,290) tons [2]. - Strategy - Unilateral: Focus on range - bound operations. - Others: No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading are proposed [2]. Stainless - Steel Market - Market Analysis - Futures: On December 2, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract opened at 12,460 yuan/ton and closed at 12,465 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 95,108 (- 68,491) lots, and the open interest was 102,135 (- 4,171) lots. It showed a low - level oscillating upward trend, similar to Shanghai nickel, and is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term due to the coexistence of macro support and fundamental pressure [2]. - Spot: Affected by the "buy on rising" psychology, stainless - steel spot trading has improved, and prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets have increased by 50 yuan/ton to 12,700 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium is between 355 - 555 yuan/ton, and the average ex - factory price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 881.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. - Others: No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading are proposed [4].