烧碱偏弱震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views - PVC shows a narrow - range fluctuation with overall weak supply - demand. Its price is affected by factors such as new capacity, downstream demand, and export situation. The market should focus on subsequent device maintenance and macro - sentiment [3] - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. Supply increases due to device maintenance recovery and new capacity, while demand weakens, especially in the non - aluminum sector. The market should pay attention to capacity release and demand changes [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market News and Key Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,575 yuan/ton (+22), the East China basis is - 85 yuan/ton (-22), and the South China basis is - 55 yuan/ton (-2) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,490 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,520 yuan/ton (+20) [1] - Upstream production profit: The price of semi - coke is 800 yuan/ton (+0), the price of calcium carbide is 2,880 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 50 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 881 yuan/ton (-33), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 465 yuan/ton (+51), and the PVC export profit is - 9.4 US dollars/ton (-0.3) [1] - Inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 32.3 million tons (+0.7), the social PVC inventory is 52.8 million tons (+0.1), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 82.21% (+2.06%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 71.12% (-0.19%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 78.85% (+1.37%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 67.0 million tons (-0.7) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,211 yuan/ton (-1), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 70 yuan/ton (+1) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 730 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,200 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,260 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 616.3 yuan/ton (+40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 365.71 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 580.52 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 46.98 million tons (+4.22), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.27 million tons (+0.18), and the caustic soda operation rate is 85.00% (+0.40%) [2] - Downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate is 86.06% (+0.60%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 65.52% (-1.03%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 91.29% (+1.20%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The National Development and Reform Commission's meeting has a certain boost to the sentiment of bulk commodities. There is no new device maintenance this week, but some enterprises consider production cuts due to low prices. New capacity is gradually being put into production, and the supply is abundant. The downstream operation rate decreases slightly, and the procurement sentiment is general. The export window is open, but the anti - dumping investigation of PVC wallpapers may affect the export of PVC products [3] Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply increases due to the recovery of device maintenance and new capacity. The demand from the alumina side is affected, and the non - aluminum demand weakens. The expected production of alumina factories in Guangxi has uncertainty, and the ongoing caustic soda bidding may support the subsequent spot price [3] Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Narrow - range fluctuation - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity: None [5]