Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral, and BR is also rated neutral [10] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, the end of rain in southern Thailand in early December requires further assessment of flood impacts. Domestic rubber inventories are increasing, with supply from Thailand to increase, and the supply - demand structure may widen the spread between RU and NR. For BR, the recent price rebound is driven by butadiene, but the support is limited, and the supply is expected to increase while downstream demand is weak [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,360 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton; the NR main contract was 12,230 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,685 yuan/ton, up 375 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,950 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,580 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - number standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,835 US dollars/ton, unchanged; Indonesian 20 - number standard rubber was 1,730 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 ex - factory price was 10,600 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 market price was 10,400 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - China's rubber tire exports in the first 10 months of 2025 reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%, and the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. New pneumatic rubber tire exports reached 7.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%, and the export value was 134.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. In terms of quantity, the export volume was 586.64 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4%. From January to October, automobile tire exports were 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%, and the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [2] - In October 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [2] - After centralized maintenance in October, some enterprises still had maintenance and production reduction in November, and the phenomenon may continue in December, dragging down overall production [2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, standard rubber exports totaled 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; smoked sheet rubber exports were 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; latex exports were 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, exports to China totaled 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, standard rubber exports to China totaled 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; smoked sheet rubber exports to China totaled 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; latex exports to China totaled 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [3] - In October, the national passenger car market retail volume was 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. From January to October, the cumulative retail volume was 19.25 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [3] - In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On December 2, 2025, the RU basis was - 410 yuan/ton (- 10), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 780 yuan/ton (+ 80), the NR basis was 761.00 yuan/ton (- 53.00); whole latex was 14,950 yuan/ton (+ 100), mixed rubber was 14,580 yuan/ton (+ 30), 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+ 50). STR20 was quoted at 1,835 US dollars/ton (+ 0), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 300 yuan/ton (+ 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,580 yuan/ton (- 170) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 59.55 baht/kg (+ 0.00), Thai latex was 55.50 baht/kg (- 0.50), Thai cup lump was 52.95 baht/kg (+ 0.85), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.05 baht/kg (- 0.15) [5] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.75% (+ 0.71%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 66.00% (- 3.36%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 481,562 tons (+ 12,685), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 1,079,708 tons (+ 17,827), the RU futures inventory was 41,400 tons (+ 1,800), and the NR futures inventory was 51,307 tons (+ 1,108) [6] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On December 2, 2025, the BR basis was - 385 yuan/ton (- 275), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,100 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 was 10,600 yuan/ton (+ 200), the market price of Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 was 10,400 yuan/ton (+ 150), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,100 yuan/ton (+ 200), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,282 yuan/ton (+ 100) [7] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 70.19% (- 2.45%) [8] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 5,540 tons (+ 660), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,900 tons (+ 270) [9] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. The impact of floods in southern Thailand needs further assessment, domestic inventories are increasing, demand is weak, and the supply - demand structure may widen the spread between RU and NR. For BR, maintain a neutral stance. The price rebound is driven by butadiene, but the support is limited, supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand is weak [10]
丁二烯出口预期改善，顺丁橡胶价格反弹
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-12-03 05:17