马士基12月下半月涨价，关注下半月涨价落地情况

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maersk plans to increase prices in the second half of December, and the implementation of the price increase should be monitored [1]. - The delivery settlement price of the December contract is gradually becoming clear, and the price in the first half of December has been continuously revised downward [3]. - There may be a significant expected difference in the February 2026 contract, and its delivery settlement price will basically reflect the spot price center at the end of January [4]. - The far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, which may increase the effective shipping capacity supply and suppress freight rates [5]. - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries [6]. - For trading strategies, the December contract is expected to fluctuate, and the February contract is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias; there is currently no arbitrage strategy [7]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Futures Prices - As of December 2, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 67,239 lots, and the daily trading volume was 29,045 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1534.20, 1072.10, 1233.20, 1374.90, 1032.60, and 1633.60 respectively [5]. II. Spot Prices - On November 28, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1404 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 1632 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 2428 US dollars/FEU. On December 1, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1483.65 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 948.77 points [5]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the average weekly capacity was 303,900 TEU, and in January, it was 332,400 TEU. There were 4 blank sailings in December and 4 TBNs in January, all from the OA Alliance. Maersk added a new sailing ship, MAERSK EINDHOVEN (13,092 TEU), in Week 51 [3]. - As of November 29, 2025, 243 container ships with a total capacity of 1.985 million TEU had been delivered in 2025. Among them, 74 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU (total 1.1185 million TEU) and 12 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU (total 253,800 TEU) had been delivered [6]. IV. Supply Chain - Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd launched a Cape of Good Hope network due to the ongoing turmoil in the Red Sea. There is currently no specific time to change the east - west route of the Gemini to pass through the Red Sea [2]. - The cease - fire mediation plan for Gaza is advancing, and the Suez Canal is likely to resume navigation in 2026, which will increase the effective shipping capacity supply and suppress freight rates [5]. V. Demand and European Economy - The cargo volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year. The delivery settlement price of the EC2602 contract will basically reflect the spot price center at the end of January [4].