下任美联储主席人选逐步确定

Market Analysis - Trump plans to announce the next Fed Chair nominee in early 2026, and Nick Timiraos suggests Hassett is the "pre - selected" candidate [1] - Trump implies that the US military will soon launch land - based attacks on drug - trafficking groups in Venezuela, raising concerns about a potential military conflict [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On December 2, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 964.82 yuan/gram, closed at 958.42 yuan/gram, down 0.50% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closing price was 953.82 yuan/gram, down 0.48% from the afternoon closing price [2] - On December 2, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 13,303.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 13,423.00 yuan/kilogram, up 1.09% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 2,464,589 lots, and the open interest was 459,321 lots. The night - session closing price was 13,640 yuan/kilogram, up 1.62% from the afternoon closing price [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 2, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.088%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.58%, up 1.81 BP from the previous trading day [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On December 2, 2025, in the Au2602 contract, long positions increased by 297 lots, and short positions decreased by 858 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 386,313 lots, down 8.54% from the previous trading day [4] - In the Ag2602 contract, long positions decreased by 15,909 lots, and short positions decreased by 11,096 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Silver contracts was 3,427,760 lots, down 5.29% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,050.01 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,802 tons, an increase of 191 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On December 2, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 6.32 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 1,537.54 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the main contracts of SHFE gold and silver was about 71.40, down 1.58% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 74.00, down 0.82% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On December 2, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 45,456 kilograms, down 25.02% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 894,348 kilograms, down 44.07% from the previous trading day [7] - The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. Market risk sentiment is rising, and the Fed Chair nominee determination may strengthen the safe - haven sentiment. The Au2602 contract is expected to fluctuate between 930 yuan/gram and 980 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Neutral. Tight spot supply and macro - easing expectations make silver slightly stronger than gold. The Ag2602 contract is expected to fluctuate between 13,300 yuan/kilogram and 13,900 yuan/kilogram [8] - Arbitrage: Go long on the gold - silver ratio at low levels [9] - Options: Put on hold [9]