2026年展望系列四：货币政策重心转移

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The monetary policy operation will continue the loose tone, with the focus shifting to price control. The next - stage monetary policy is expected to maintain the general tone of moderate looseness, deepen price - control policy reform, and use structural tools around key areas [3]. - The interest rate transmission path of price - based tools is optimized, and there is still room for interest rate cuts. The "five - group interest rate comparison relationships" are gradually straightened out, and it is expected that the policy interest rate may be cut by 20BP in 2026, possibly in the first half of the year [4]. - For quantity - based tools, the high - volume roll - over of repurchase and MLF limits the space for reserve requirement ratio cuts. The necessity of reserve requirement ratio cuts is not high, and the focus in 2026 is on whether the current medium - and long - term liquidity injection model will continue [5]. - In the broad liquidity aspect, the de - leveraging cycle continues, and government bonds support the stabilization of the social financing growth rate. It is estimated that the social financing increment in 2026 will be slightly higher than that in 2025, about 34.5 trillion yuan [5]. - The narrow - sense liquidity will maintain a narrow - range fluctuation, and the expectation is to maintain a reasonable and sufficient level. The narrow - sense liquidity will continue the low - volatility and stable state, and the central bank is expected to ensure the stable operation of the capital market through flexible open - market operations [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 General Introduction: Monetary Policy Operation Continues the Loose Tone, with the Focus Shifting to Price Control - Summary and Review: In 2025, the monetary policy shifted from prudent to moderately loose. Quantity injection and price control jointly promoted reasonable and sufficient liquidity. The operation framework reform continued to deepen, and structural monetary policies effectively supported key areas [12][13][14]. - Next - stage Monetary Policy Outlook: In 2026, the liquidity is expected to remain reasonably sufficient, and the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies will continue to improve. The reform of the monetary policy framework will deepen, and structural tools will strengthen policy support in key areas [16][18][19]. 3.2 Price - based Tools: Interest Rate Transmission Path is Optimized, and Small - scale Interest Rate Cuts are Still Anticipated - Five - group Interest Rate Relationships are Gradually Straightened Out, and the Possibility of a New Round of Interest Rate Cuts is Achieved: The central bank proposed the "five - group interest rate comparison relationships" in the Q3 2025 monetary policy report. These relationships are in a relatively repaired state, providing a possibility for the central bank to further cut the policy interest rate in 2026 [21][31]. - In 2026, Price Control will be Mainly Stable, and the Interest Rate Cut Space is Expected to be within 20BP: Considering the economic situation, interest rate system, bank system's bearing capacity, and fiscal - monetary coordination, there is still about 20BP of space for policy interest rate cuts in 2026 [33][34]. 3.3 Quantity - based Tools: High - volume Roll - over of Repurchase and MLF, and the Space for Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts May be Limited - Medium - and Long - term Liquidity Injection is Well - coordinated, and MLF and Outright Repurchase are Expanded Synchronously: In 2025, the liquidity injection of quantity - based tools formed an institutional arrangement. Outright repurchase and MLF were expanded synchronously, effectively hedging the impact of the concentrated maturity of structural monetary policies. Some structural policy tools are shrinking, and the central bank's bond - buying operation restarted cautiously [35][39][41]. - System Optimization is a Necessary Prerequisite for Opening up the Space for Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts: Currently, the necessity of reserve requirement ratio cuts is significantly reduced. Unless the 5% constraint is broken, the trend is to淡化 reserve requirement ratio cuts and expand tools [43][44]. 3.4 Broad Liquidity: The De - leveraging Cycle Continues, and Government Bonds Support the Stabilization of the Social Financing Growth Rate - Credit and Social Financing: The de - leveraging cycle of residents and enterprises continues, and the credit growth rate faces continuous pressure. In 2025, the short - term loans and bill financing of enterprises increased significantly, and government and enterprise bond financing supported the social financing scale. It is estimated that the credit and social financing in 2026 will increase slightly [45][51][54]. - Deposits: Personal savings deposits maintain high - slope growth, non - bank deposits show high - volatility and high - growth characteristics, unit current deposits are weakly recovering, and unit time deposits are declining. The liability side of large banks is gradually stabilizing [56][58][59]. 3.5 Narrow - sense Liquidity: The Capital Market Fluctuates Narrowly, and the Expectation is to Maintain a Reasonable and Sufficient Level - In 2025, the capital market style changed significantly after the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut in May. The narrow - sense liquidity will continue the "low - volatility and stable state" in 2026, with the price center moving down and the volatility further converging. There may be potential liquidity frictions in the first quarter of 2026, but the central bank is expected to ensure the stable operation of the capital market [66][69][70].