蛋白数据日报-20251203

Key Points Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - China's procurement demand supports the US market, and the domestic market is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to South American weather changes. Weather speculation would be bullish for the single - side and spot basis. Without obvious weather problems, the new - crop discount is expected to be under pressure from the expected Brazilian bumper harvest from December to January, which will drag down the domestic soybean meal pricing. The spread between 103 - 105 is expected to be in a positive spread, with the risk lying in the domestic reserve release situation [8]. 3. Summary by Related Content Supply - side Information - USDA's current forecast for US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is a yield of 53 bushels per acre and an ending stock of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - consumption ratio of 6.7%). The US soybean yield may be further revised down due to less rainfall in the production areas from August to September. CONB predicts that the new Brazilian crop output in 25/26 will reach 177.6 million tons [7]. - As of November 22, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 78% (last week: 60%, same period last year: 83.3%, five - year average: 75.8%). As of November 26, the Argentine soybean planting progress was 36% (last week: 24.6%, same period last year: 45%) [7][8]. - Short - term weather shows no obvious drought problem, but attention should be paid to the impact of the weak La Niña weather pattern on rainfall in southern Brazil and Argentina in December. From December to January, domestic soybeans and soybean meal are expected to seasonally destock. There is uncertainty in domestic soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year, and attention should be paid to reserve release [8]. Demand - side Information - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term, and capacity reduction is not obvious, which supports feed demand. However, the pig farming industry is currently in a loss, and national policies tend to control pig inventories and weights, which may affect long - term supply. Soybean meal has relatively high cost - effectiveness, with normal downstream transactions and good提货 performance recently [8]. Inventory - related Information - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels in the same period. The soybean meal inventory is being destocked slowly, and the spot supply pressure is still large, but it is expected to accelerate destocking from December to January. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8]. Price - related Information - On December 2, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 95 (down 6), in Tianjin was 55 (down 26), and in Rizhao was - 25 (down 36). The spot basis of 43% soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 15 (down 6), in Dongguan was - 25 (down 6), in Zhanjiang was - 25 (down 6), and in Fangcheng was - 25 (down 16). The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 81 (up 76) [4]. - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread of the main contract was 622 (up 6) [5].