光大期货有色商品日报-20251203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose and then fell, with domestic refined copper spot imports remaining in a loss. The market anticipates that if the dovish Hassert is elected as the new Fed Chair, it will strengthen the market's dovish bets, but balancing monetary stimulus and inflation poses challenges. Domestically, attention is on the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. In December, the estimated domestic electrolytic copper production is 1168800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.96% and a year - on - year increase of 6.69%. Due to high copper prices, terminal orders have slowed, and the market maintains rigid procurement demand. There are uncertainties about whether the price can continue to rebound as the off - season approaches and there is no sign of a rapid release of demand [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. The expected environmental production restrictions on northern alumina plants did not occur; instead, there were new investments and复产 rhythms, leading to a significant correction in the futures market. The decline in aluminum prices has boosted downstream sentiment, and the lagging demand is gradually being fulfilled in the short term. However, as the new energy vehicle purchase tax rush ends and the matching of State Grid orders concludes, it is less likely for aluminum prices to reach a new high this year, and the upside space depends on the bulls' response to subsequent macro - dynamics [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. The inventory of primary nickel is under pressure, and the production in December is expected to increase month - on - month. Considering the cost support of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel at 110000 yuan/ton, one can consider bottom - fishing and waiting for positive factors to materialize, but be vigilant against macro - disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Macro factors' impact on maintaining an optimistic mood is uncertain. Microscopically, the shortage of concentrates supports copper's high valuation, but the lack of rapid demand release in the off - season makes price recovery uncertain [1]. - Aluminum: The non - occurrence of expected environmental production restrictions and new investments/复产 have led to a correction in the futures market. Aluminum prices have support, but the possibility of reaching a new high is low [1][2]. - Nickel: The nickel - stainless steel industry chain is weak, while the new energy industry chain has tight raw materials. One can consider bottom - fishing with cost support but beware of risks [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 610 yuan/ton, and the inventory in some exchanges changed. For example, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 927 tons [1][4]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead increased by 80 yuan/ton, and the inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased [4]. - Aluminum: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum decreased slightly, and the total inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 8439 tons [5]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 225 yuan/ton, and the inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased [5]. - Zinc: The主力 settlement price increased by 0.8%, and the social inventory decreased by 0.28 million tons [7]. - Tin: The主力 settlement price decreased by 0.6%, and the SMM spot price decreased by 3500 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2025 [9][10][16]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [17][20][24]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [26][28][30]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36]. - Social Inventory: Charts illustrate the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [38][40][42]. - Smelting Profit: Charts depict the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [45][47][49]. 3.4 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and has won multiple industry awards. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [52]. - Wang Heng: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, an analyst focusing on aluminum and silicon, providing in - depth reports and risk management services [52]. - Zhu Xi: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK, an analyst focusing on lithium and nickel, tracking the new energy industry chain and providing policy interpretations [53].