中辉期货农产品观点-20251203

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Bean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton [1] - Bearish: Red dates, live pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Bean meal: Short - term bullish oscillation, but cautious about chasing long positions, focus on the US agricultural December report and South American soybean planting weather [1][3] - Rapeseed meal: Short - term bullish oscillation, be cautious about chasing long positions in the main contract, pay attention to the US agricultural December report and China - Canada trade progress [1][6] - Palm oil: Expected to stop falling in stages, be cautious about chasing long positions, pay attention to position and risk control [1][7] - Soybean oil: Short - term bullish oscillation, pay attention to South American soybean weather, treat it as a range market this week [1] - Rapeseed oil: Short - term bullish, take a bullish approach, be cautious about short - selling [1] - Cotton: Cautiously bullish, consider buying on dips, and pay attention to medium - to long - term moderate recovery opportunities [1][11] - Red dates: Oscillating weakly, maintain a bearish attitude in general, but do not over - short in the short term [1][13] - Live pigs: Oscillating weakly, focus on short - selling opportunities in the near - term 01 contract, the 03 contract is also bearish, and pay attention to short - term long opportunities in 09 and 11 after the selling pressure is released [1][16] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Bean Meal - Inventory: As of November 28, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 957600 tons, up 15100 tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 7339600 tons, up 189700 tons week - on - week; bean meal inventory was 1203200 tons, up 51700 tons week - on - week [3] - Price: Futures price (main contract daily closing) was 3045 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.20% from the previous day; national average spot price was 3116.57 yuan/ton, down 6.86 yuan or - 0.22% [2] - Market Outlook: Before the release of the US agricultural December report, it maintains a short - term bullish oscillation pattern, but be cautious about chasing long positions [1][3] Rapeseed Meal - Inventory: As of November 28, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0 tons; rapeseed meal inventory was 0.01 tons; unfulfilled contracts were 0 tons, down 0.01 tons week - on - week [6] - Price: Futures price (main contract daily closing) was 2423 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; national average spot price was 2507.37 yuan/ton, down 12.1 yuan or - 0.48% [4] - Market Outlook: Affected by weather premium speculation in the bean meal sector and low import expectations, the far - month rapeseed meal is in a short - term bullish oscillation [1][6] Palm Oil - Inventory: As of November 28, 2025, national key areas' palm oil commercial inventory was 653500 tons, down 13600 tons or 2.04% week - on - week [7] - Export and Production: In November 2025 in Malaysia, different institutions' data showed a decline in palm oil exports, and the production decreased slightly [7] - Market Outlook: The futures price rebounded and closed up yesterday, but there is a high probability of inventory accumulation in November, so be cautious about chasing long positions [1][7] Cotton - International Situation: In the US, new cotton harvesting is nearing completion; in India, new cotton is on the market, and MSP purchases are affected by rain; in Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing is 73.87% complete, and non - main产区 starts sowing 2026 new cotton [9] - Domestic Situation: New cotton picking is basically completed, public inspection is over half, sales are fast, cost support is strengthened, but there is high inventory pressure [10][11] - Market Outlook: Cautiously bullish, consider buying on dips, and pay attention to medium - to long - term opportunities [1][11] Red Dates - Supply: New jujubes are on the market, and the expected production is 500000 - 600000 tons, with an oversupply situation [13] - Inventory: The physical inventory of 36 sample points is 10848 tons, up 518 tons week - on - week [13] - Market Outlook: Oscillating weakly, maintain a bearish attitude in general, but do not over - short in the short term [1][13] Live Pigs - Supply: In December, the planned slaughter increases, and the overall supply pressure is large [15][16] - Demand: Downstream slaughter increases, cold storage passively stocks up, and social retail catering consumption improves slightly [15] - Market Outlook: Oscillating weakly, focus on short - selling opportunities in the near - term 01 contract, the 03 contract is also bearish, and pay attention to short - term long opportunities in 09 and 11 after the selling pressure is released [1][16]