2026年宏观经济展望：战术上的收敛，目标内的平衡

Group 1: Overseas Economic and Policy Environment - The U.S. economy in 2026 may be more fragile than it appears, with growth driven mainly by AI-related investments and high-income consumer spending, while other contributions remain minimal[4] - The unemployment rate is expected to maintain balance under constrained supply and demand, but the labor market is still experiencing cyclical slowdowns[4] - Inflation is projected to slow down in its return to target levels due to core components, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process[4] Group 2: Domestic Policy Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests a shift in policy focus to solidify development foundations while addressing external uncertainties and weak internal demand[5] - Fiscal policy is expected to remain "more proactive," with an emphasis on early deployment and investment in human capital[5] - Monetary policy will continue to be accommodative but will focus more on credit quality and liquidity management[5] Group 3: Domestic Economic Environment - China's economic growth in 2026 is anticipated to stabilize around 5%, with investment leading the recovery while consumption requires systematic policy support[6] - External demand is expected to ensure stable growth in industrial value added, with a focus on high-tech industries and their ability to enhance competitiveness[6] - Inflation is expected to have a basis for recovery, particularly with the PPI growth potentially rebounding significantly[6] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Geopolitical risks and unexpected economic and policy changes pose significant threats to the economic outlook[7]