碳酸锂日报：碳酸锂12月排产略有放缓，预期修正后可待新机-20251203

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that the lithium carbonate futures price will remain in a low - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks due to the steady growth of supply, the slowdown of demand growth, and the decrease in the inventory reduction amplitude, with the overall market supply - demand balance being slightly loose [3][34][40] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Market Summary - Futures Market Data Changes: On December 2, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract slightly declined to 96,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 380 yuan or 0.39% from the previous day; the basis strengthened from - 3,140 yuan/ton to - 2,460 yuan/ton, an increase of 680 yuan. The open interest expanded to 552,239 lots, an increase of 8,606 lots or 1.58%, while the trading volume shrank to 454,290 lots, a decrease of 81,185 lots or 15.16% [1][31][37] Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply Side: The market prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable at 8,805 yuan/ton and 4,825 yuan/ton respectively, with stable cost support. The capacity utilization rate remained at 75.34%, but new production lines were gradually put into operation, and it is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in December will increase by about 3% month - on - month [2][31][39] - Demand Side: The prices of downstream cathode materials increased slightly. The sales volume of new energy vehicles from November 1 - 23 increased by 3% year - on - year, but it is predicted that the sales volume in December may decline slightly. The cell production was at a high level but decreased month - on - month, and the energy storage market had strong supply and demand. Overall, the demand remained stable but the growth momentum weakened [2][32][39] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: The lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 115,968 physical tons, a decrease of 2,452 tons or 2.07% from the previous week, continuing the de - stocking trend. It is expected that the de - stocking amplitude in December will slow down [2][31][40] Industry Chain Price Monitoring - On December 2, 2025, compared with December 1, the lithium carbonate main contract price slightly declined, the basis strengthened, the open interest increased, and the trading volume decreased. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly, while the prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained unchanged. The prices of some cathode materials and batteries also had corresponding changes [5] Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - Spot Market Quotations: On December 2, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased, while the average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly. The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated narrowly. The downstream material factories mainly relied on long - term contracts and customer - supplied channels, and the market transactions were light. The annual long - term contract negotiations between upstream and downstream enterprises were ongoing. It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in December will increase, and the inventory will continue to be reduced but at a slower pace [6] - Downstream Consumption: From November 1 - 23, the retail and wholesale volumes of new energy passenger vehicles increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the cumulative retail and wholesale volumes this year also increased significantly year - on - year [7] - Industry News: On November 26, Chuanneng Power mentioned in an institutional survey that its lithium mining project had basically reached the designed production capacity [9]