碳酸锂日报-20251203

1. Research Views - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures, the 2605 contract, dropped 0.72% to 96,560 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 50 yuan/ton to 94,400 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose 50 yuan/ton to 91,950 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 100 yuan/ton to 82,580 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 770 tons to 8,992 tons [3]. - In terms of news, the change registration (including renewal) of the non - oil and gas mining right for the lithium ore in Zhenkouli, Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province - Jianxiawo, Fengxin County has entered the acceptance stage [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output decreased by 265 tons to 21,865 tons. Among them, the output of lithium extracted from spodumene increased by 20 tons to 13,364 tons, the output of lithium from lepidolite increased by 50 tons to 3,021 tons, the output of lithium from salt lakes decreased by 400 tons to 3,225 tons, and the output of lithium from recycled materials increased by 65 tons to 2,245 tons. According to SMM data, the supply in December is expected to increase by 3% to 98,000 tons. On the demand side, the weekly output of ternary materials increased by 259 tons to 19,261 tons, and the inventory increased by 71 tons to 19,361 tons; the output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4,690 tons to 95,713 tons, and the inventory increased by 1,757 tons to 104,341 tons. According to SMM data, the output of ternary materials in December is expected to decline by 7% to 78,280 tons, and the output of lithium iron phosphate is expected to decline by 1% to 409,550 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory decreased by 2,452 tons to 115,968 tons, with downstream inventory decreasing by 2,452 tons to 41,984 tons, inventory in other links increasing by 1,780 tons to 49,660 tons, and upstream inventory decreasing by 1,780 tons to 24,324 tons [3]. - From the perspective of weekly data, the decrease in supply and increase in demand led to the decline of the total inventory turnover days to 26.3 days. However, from the perspective of future market trends, considering the resumption of production expectations and the preliminary downstream production scheduling data, the fundamental situation may show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, leading to a slowdown in the de - stocking speed or inventory accumulation, and the marginal weakening of positive factors. Therefore, there is a relatively large risk in chasing up the current price. Affected by centralized cancellations, the warehouse receipt inventory decreased significantly on November 28, and attention should be paid to the return situation [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides price data of various products in the lithium - battery industry chain on December 2, 2025, and December 1, 2025, including futures prices, lithium ore prices, lithium and lithium salt prices, price spreads, precursor and cathode material prices, and battery prices [5]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Prices - The report shows the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - The price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 are presented [10][13]. 3.3 Price Spreads - The report shows the price spreads such as the difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the difference between CIF Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide from 2024 to 2025 [16][17]. 3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - The price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2025 are presented [23][26]. 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - The price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobaltate cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 are shown [30][32]. 3.6 Inventory - The inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from April 10, 2025, to November 27, 2025, are presented [36][38]. 3.7 Production Costs - The production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as purchased ternary pole piece black powder, purchased lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, purchased lepidolite concentrate, and purchased spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 are shown [40][41]. 4. Research Team Members - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the current director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an outstanding metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. He has long been interviewed by multiple media such as Futures Daily, China Securities Journal, Shanghai Securities News, Securities Times, First Financial, and China Times. His team has won the awards of the 16th and 15th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Teams of Futures Daily & Securities Times and the title of the Outstanding Non - ferrous Metal Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [44]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He is rooted in the domestic non - ferrous industry research, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers, and has written many in - depth reports, which have been highly recognized by customers. He has also conducted in - depth research on hedging accounting and hedging information disclosure to better serve the risk management of listed companies [45]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. He focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers, and has written many in - depth reports, which have been highly recognized by customers [45].