铜日报：贵金属市场情绪暂时退潮，电解铜期价短期回落-20251203

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the next one to two weeks due to the continuous risk of structural shortage on the supply - side, support from the new energy sector but weakness in traditional sectors on the demand - side, and cautious macro sentiment [3][47] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: On December 02, the SHFE main contract price dropped to 88,710 yuan/ton, a 0.57% decline from the previous day; the LME price fell to 11,145 dollars/ton, a 0.78% decrease. The premium of flat - water copper strengthened to 45 yuan/ton, and the LME(0 - 3) premium remained at 69.18 dollars/ton [1] - Position and Trading Volume: The LME position increased slightly to 334,442 lots on December 01, while the trading volume of the BC copper contract significantly shrank to 7,607 lots [1] Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply Side: The copper market faces a risk of structural shortage due to declining ore grades and extended project cycles. The Kamoa - Kakula smelter was put into operation on November 21, which will gradually reduce inventory. Saudi Arabia launched a mineral exploration tender, but the short - term supply increase is limited. Overall, the supply side is restricted by rising costs [2] - Demand Side: The demand in the power sector is stable. On December 02, Kingboard announced a 5 - 10% price increase to cope with the cost pressure of copper foil. The support from the new energy sector is evident as Nord Co., Ltd. signed a copper foil supply agreement from 2026 - 2028. However, traditional demand is weak, with the home appliance production schedule in December showing a 14.1% year - on - year decline, sluggish trading in the recycled copper rod market, and shrinking orders from brass rod enterprises [2] - Inventory Side: The LME inventory decreased to 30,568 tons on December 02, while the SHFE inventory rose to 161,800 tons. The SMM national inventory decreased by 14,500 tons to 159,000 tons on December 01 due to reduced imports, but a slight inventory build - up is expected [2] Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Spot (Premium/Discount): The price of SMM:1 copper premium copper decreased by 440 yuan/ton to 88,820 yuan/ton, a 0.49% decline; the flat - water copper premium increased by 20 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton, an 80% increase; the wet - process copper discount increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton, a 16.67% decrease; the LME(0 - 3) premium increased slightly [5] - Price: The SHFE price decreased by 510 yuan/ton to 88,710 yuan/ton, a 0.57% decline; the LME price decreased by 88 dollars/ton to 11,145 dollars/ton, a 0.78% decrease [5] - Inventory: The LME inventory decreased by 927 tons to 30,568 tons, a 2.94% decrease; the SHFE inventory increased by 2,375 tons to 161,800 tons, a 1.49% increase; the COMEX inventory increased by 2,592 short tons to 431,938 short tons, a 0.60% increase [5] Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On December 02, the recycled copper rod market had weak follow - up price increase power of recycled copper raw materials, resulting in a widening refined - scrap price difference. However, the market trading was still sluggish [6] - On December 02, Kingboard raised the price of its copper - clad laminate products by 5 - 10% due to increased raw material costs [6] - On December 02, Nord Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary signed a 373,000 - ton copper foil supply agreement with CATL from 2026 - 2028 [6] - On December 01, the SMM national copper inventory decreased by 14,500 tons to 159,000 tons. A slight inventory build - up is expected in the future [7] - On December 01, SolGold rejected Jiangxi Copper's acquisition offer [7] Price Trend Judgment - The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the next one to two weeks, driven by the continuous risk of structural shortage on the supply - side, support from the new energy sector but weakness in traditional sectors on the demand - side, and cautious macro sentiment [3]