固定收益点评：超长债阴跌，怎么看？

Report Summary 1. Core Issues Addressed - Analyze the reasons for the recent decline in the bond market - Provide an outlook for the subsequent market trends [3] 2. Core Views - Interest rate decline requires positive factors for catalysis, and the yield curve may remain steep due to supply - demand dynamics - For band trading, it is advisable to avoid 30 - year treasury bonds for now. If investing in 30 - year treasury bonds, attention should be paid to the potential increase in liquidity of Special 02 and Ordinary 02 in the future - The coupon strategy has relatively higher certainty under loose liquidity conditions [6][8][18] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Event - In the past month, despite many positive factors in the bond market (weak fundamentals, loose funds, less supply in the fourth quarter, and the traditional year - end front - running behavior of institutions), the market has seen more declines than gains, and ultra - long bonds have performed particularly weakly. As of December 2, 25 Special 02 has reached its highest level since listing [4][13] 3.2 Comments - Central Bank's Bond Transactions: In November, the central bank's treasury bond transactions were only 50 billion yuan. After the news was announced, the active 30 - year treasury bond showed a repair of about 0.5 basis points, indicating that the previous pessimistic expectations had materialized. The central bank's bond transactions are mainly for government bond issuance and to maintain liquidity, with limited actual benefits to the bond market [6][14] - Banks' Bond Sales for Profit - Taking: This year is the second year with a significantly higher proportion of ultra - long bond supply. As of December 2, the net financing of treasury bonds this year was 4.97 trillion yuan, of which bonds with a maturity of over 10 years accounted for 30% (1.48 trillion yuan), compared with 28% in 2024 and 7% in 2023. Due to duration assessment and profit requirements, banks have a "negative feedback" effect on ultra - long bonds. Some banks, such as rural commercial banks, are unable to absorb more ultra - long bonds, and banks as a whole have the demand to sell old bonds through AC/OCI accounts to realize floating profits [6][15] - Trading - Desk Negative Factors: The trading volume of 10 - year treasury bonds has significantly declined, with the daily trading volume of the active 10 - year treasury bond dropping from about 60 billion yuan to about 30 billion yuan. From the CNEX divergence index on December 2, the main selling institutions are funds and securities firms. Public funds are facing the uncertainty of new redemption fee regulations, and securities firms are still short - selling 30 - year treasury bonds by borrowing them [6][8][18] - Insurance Institutions' Investment Preference: This year, the main investment of insurance institutions is local government bonds, which may further increase the volatility of 30 - year treasury bonds [8][18]