Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. labor market shows signs of significant slowdown, with the unemployment rate rising and the number of continuing unemployment claims remaining high[1] - The Federal Reserve officials have indicated risks in the labor market, with a call for a 25 basis point rate cut in December to stabilize it[1] - Market expectations for a December rate cut have increased, with a probability of 87% for a cut[23] Group 2: Market Trends - The upcoming weeks are expected to see a peak in U.S. corporate buybacks, potentially leading to a "Santa Rally" in December[2] - Interest in the AI sector is shifting from infrastructure to application layers, with less than 10% of U.S. employees currently using AI daily, indicating early-stage penetration[2] - The commercial viability and maturity of AI applications will be key observation points over the next two years[2] Group 3: Risks - A rebound in employment data or stronger-than-expected inflation could lead to a slower pace of policy easing than anticipated[3] - Challenges in the commercialization of AI applications may suppress valuations in related sectors[3]
海外宏观周报：12月降息预期重燃-20251203
China Post Securities·2025-12-03 06:27