集运日报：回撤或已到位主力合约连续反弹已建议轻仓试多关注春节前出货行情运价并无明显波动-20251203

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The retracement may be in place, and the main contract has rebounded continuously. It is recommended to take a small - position long in the main contract and focus on the pre - Spring Festival shipping market. The freight rate has no obvious fluctuation. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is suggested to participate with a small position [2][4] - With the interweaving of long and short information such as some liner companies' price increase announcements and the decline of the latest SCFIS index, the contracts rise and fall differently. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index Information - On December 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1483.65 points, down 9.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 948.77 points, down 14.4% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period [3] - On November 28, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1403.13 points, up 9.57 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1404 USD/TEU, up 2.71% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1632 USD/FEU, down 0.79% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [3] 3.2 Economic Data - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined. The composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises were stable [4] - In the US in October, the S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52, previous value 52); the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [4] - In the eurozone in October, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); the services PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6). The Sentix investor confidence index was expected to be - 8.5, with the previous value of - 9.2 [3] 3.3 Contract Information - On December 2, the main contract 2602 closed at 1534.2, with a gain of 2.16%, a trading volume of 24,700 lots, and an open interest of 36,300 lots, a decrease of 1882 lots from the previous day [4] 3.4 Strategy Suggestions - Short - term strategy: For risk - preference investors, it is recommended to take a small - position long in the main contract. When the market dips slightly, do not add more positions, do not hold losses, and set stop - losses [5] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a small position [5] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises to a high level, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5] 3.5 Other Information - Some liner companies have announced price increases for late December, but the latest SCFIS index is declining, with long and short information intertwined, and the contracts rise and fall differently [4] - The Iran - Israel situation: Iran is seeking to restore its military potential and re - arm regional forces to confront Israel, including restoring the military capabilities of the Houthi armed forces and smuggling weapons to the West Bank for attacks on Israel [6] - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin of the company for these contracts is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5]