守正待变：数据真空下中久期高评级策略

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a medium to long-duration high-rating strategy to balance yield acquisition and risk control during periods of uncertainty [1] - The global bond market is currently focused on three main themes: increasing fiscal risks in Europe, data vacuum in the US, and credit improvement in emerging markets [4][7] - The European Central Bank warns of rising sovereign debt supply pressures and a shrinking scale of bond purchases, leading to increased interest rate risks [4][7] Group 2 - The US bond market is experiencing a data vacuum due to a prolonged government shutdown, which has led to a significant drop in the probability of a rate cut in December from 95% to 50% [4][8] - Emerging markets are attracting capital inflows due to the best credit rating cycle in a decade and fiscal reforms, with a total of $16.7 billion attracted in 2025 [4][9] - The report suggests focusing on 5-7 year medium to long-duration bonds to capture the benefits of a steepening yield curve while maintaining a defensive position in AAA/AA+ rated securities [4][10]