A股市场2026年度策略报告：制造为盾，科技为剑-20251203

Market Review - The A-share market is gradually forming a slow bull trend, with technology growth as the main driver. As of November 28, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index, ChiNext Index, and Sci-Tech 50 Index have increased by 16.0%, 42.5%, and 34.2% respectively, with sectors such as non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, and power equipment leading the gains [10][15][18]. Market Environment - The external economic environment is expected to recover moderately, with the U.S. potentially entering a phase of "loose monetary + loose fiscal" policies. This is likely to sustain technology investment and maintain resilient consumer spending [23][24]. - Domestic new growth drivers continue to strengthen, with corporate profit expectations improving. The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes economic construction, and fiscal policies are expected to support technology innovation, livelihood security, and infrastructure investment [23][31]. - A-share corporate profitability is anticipated to continue improving, with certain industries such as military industry, power equipment, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, and steel expected to see upward trends in profitability [23][26]. Structural Opportunities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines four major industrial directions, with technology and manufacturing as dual cores leading the way. Key areas include: 1. Technology Innovation: Focus on high-level technological self-reliance and nurturing emerging industries, with AI as a core investment theme. Global AI capital expenditure is expected to grow significantly, supporting high prosperity in related industries [23][31]. 2. Advanced Manufacturing: Strengthening the global leading position in advantageous manufacturing sectors, particularly in new energy and defense industries, which are expected to benefit from national security demands and military trade upgrades [23][31]. 3. Domestic Circulation: Building a strong domestic market to boost consumption and address internal competition issues. Policy support is expected to release new consumer demand potential [23][31]. 4. Resource Security: Enhancing the protection and utilization of strategic resources, with macroeconomic and fundamental resonance likely to drive up non-ferrous metal prices [23][31]. Market Outlook - The report suggests focusing on four main lines for investment opportunities: 1. Technology Innovation: Emphasizing the AI industry chain, including semiconductors, communications, PCB, applications, and robotics [23][31]. 2. Advanced Manufacturing: Paying attention to new energy and defense industries [23][31]. 3. Upstream Cycles: Monitoring price signals in non-ferrous metals and chemicals [23][31]. 4. Domestic Consumption: Focusing on new consumption trends [23][31].