养殖油脂产业链日报策略报告-20251203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soybean oil, the supply of domestic soybean products is sufficient, and the upward drive for further price increase is expected to be insufficient. It is not recommended to chase the upward trend, and short - term investors should wait and see. The support level of the main soybean oil contract is 8050 - 8100 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 8300 - 8350 yuan/ton [3]. - For rapeseed oil, the inventory is in a marginal destocking state, and the supply is expected to turn loose. The price movement is restricted both upwards and downwards. Short - term investors can wait and see. The support level of the OI2601 contract is 9300 - 9350 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 10000 - 10050 yuan/ton [3]. - For palm oil, it is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend in the short term. Investors can consider short - term long positions. The support level is 8300 - 8350 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 8750 - 8800 yuan/ton [4]. - For soybeans and soybean meal, the domestic soybean supply is relatively sufficient, and the short - term upward drive is expected to be insufficient. For the main soybean meal contract, investors can consider holding a small short position [4]. - For rapeseed meal, it is expected to continue to fluctuate. Investors can wait and see, paying attention to the start - up situation of coastal oil mills and the shipping and customs clearance process of Australian rapeseeds [4]. - For corn and corn starch, the short - term external price may continue to fluctuate strongly. The domestic corn price rebound strength is expected to slow down. For the 01 contract, investors should wait and see, and for the 05 contract, long positions should be held with caution [5][6]. - For soybeans (domestic), the short - term price may remain firm. It is recommended to wait and see for now [7]. - For live pigs, the short - term price is in a low - level volatile state. Medium - term investors can consider buying the 2607 contract at a low price after the capacity reduction is confirmed. Cautious investors can wait and see unilaterally [7]. - For eggs, the short - term price is in a volatile state. Cautious investors should avoid short - selling, and aggressive investors can buy the 2603 contract at a low price below the farmers' cost [7]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations a. Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic (Supply - Demand) | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No.1 01 | Middle and upper reaches are reluctant to sell and support prices, while downstream is wait - and - see. The price is firm. | 4040 - 4050 | 4180 - 4200 | Range - bound | Wait and see | | | Soybean No.2 01 | Sufficient port inventory, with both long and short factors. | 3650 - 3660 | 3800 - 3820 | Volatile adjustment | Wait and see | | Oils | Soybean oil 01 | Affected by the arrival of Brazilian soybeans and export news. Supply is sufficient, and consumption is increasing. | 8050 - 8100 | 8300 - 8350 | Volatile adjustment | Wait and see | | | Rapeseed oil 01 | Inventory is in a destocking state, and supply is expected to increase. | 9300 - 9350 | 10000 - 10050 | Volatile consolidation | Wait and see | | | Palm oil 01 | Entering the production - reduction season, but export demand is weak. Domestic inventory decreased last week but is still higher than last year. | 8300 - 8350 | 8750 - 8800 | Volatile and strong | Short - term long | | Protein | Soybean meal 01 | Supply is sufficient, and cost is slightly weak. | 2940 - 2950 | 3080 - 3100 | Volatile adjustment | Wait and see | | | Rapeseed meal 01 | Demand is weak, and supply is expected to increase after the arrival of Australian rapeseeds. | 2370 - 2380 | 2600 - 2630 | Volatile trend | Wait and see | | Energy and By - products | Corn 01 | Poor quality of North China corn and reduced import volume support the price, but the upward drive has decreased. | 2080 - 2100 | 2280 - 2300 | Volatile consolidation | Wait and see | | | Corn starch 01 | Follows the cost of corn and fluctuates. | 2350 - 2360 | 2600 - 2620 | Volatile consolidation | Wait and see | | Livestock | Live pigs 01 | Feed price rebounds, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthened. | 11500 - 12000 | 12500 - 12800 | Searching for the bottom in a volatile state | Wait and see | | | Eggs 01 | Decrease in new production and expectation of consumption peak season. | 3000 - 3100 | 3300 - 3350 | Searching for the bottom in a volatile state | Buy at a low price | [10] b. Commodity Arbitrage Most of the commodity arbitrage strategies are to wait and see. For example, for the spread of soybean No.1 1 - 5, soybean No.2 1 - 5, etc., investors are advised to wait and see. Only the live pigs 1 - 3 spread is recommended to do positive arbitrage at a low price [12]. c. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties such as oilseeds, oils, protein, energy and by - products, and livestock [13]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table a. Oils and Oilseeds - Daily Data: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates, such as the arrival premium, CBOT futures price, CNF arrival price, and import arrival - duty - paid price [14]. - Weekly Data: It shows the inventory and start - up rate of various oils and oilseeds, such as the inventory of soybeans in ports, the inventory and start - up rate of rapeseed in coastal oil mills, and the inventory of palm oil [16]. b. Feed - Daily Data: It provides the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [16]. - Weekly Data: It shows the weekly data of corn and corn starch, such as the consumption, inventory, start - up rate, and inventory of starch enterprises, as well as the farmers' grain - selling progress [17]. c. Livestock It provides daily and weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including prices, cost - profit, inventory, and other indicators [18][20][22]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts It includes various charts related to the livestock end (live pigs and eggs), oils and oilseeds, and feed end, which visually show the price trends, inventory changes, and other information of different varieties [23]. Fourth Part: Feed, Livestock, and Oil Options It provides the historical volatility charts of various varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and other data of corn options [84]. Fifth Part: Feed, Livestock, and Oil Warehouse Receipts It provides the warehouse receipt quantity and index open interest charts of various varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs [93].