策略专题研究：基于实操视角复盘春季行情

Group 1 - The report analyzes the historical patterns of the spring market rally, focusing on three main aspects: phase characteristics, market style performance, and strategic responses during the spring rally [4] - The spring rally typically starts between late December and mid-January, with a median starting point of 11 trading days before the Spring Festival. Historical trends can be categorized into three scenarios: symmetrical V-shaped, large-scale trend upward, and small-scale trend upward [4][11] - If the spring rally starts relatively early, it is likely to be a trend market, while a later start suggests a symmetrical V-shaped pattern, with caution advised if the index breaks previous highs [30][4] Group 2 - In the spring rally, small-cap growth stocks tend to outperform, while large-cap value stocks show better value before the rally begins [39] - Historical data indicates that small-cap growth has dominated the spring rally, with few instances of style switching [37][34] - The report provides a detailed comparison of performance across different market styles before and during the spring rally, highlighting that small-cap growth generally leads during the rally period [39] Group 3 - The report suggests several strategic responses for investors during the spring rally, indicating that investing in the ten trading days before the Spring Festival has a high success rate and a low probability of missing the rally [45] - Strategies such as investing in mid-January show a relatively high success rate but lower odds, while investing in the five trading days before the Spring Festival yields high success rates but risks missing the rally [44][43] - The analysis emphasizes that the best strategy is to invest in the ten trading days before the Spring Festival, which has shown high win rates and minimal chances of missing the spring rally [45]