国富期货早间看点：经销商预计印度11月进口棕榈油63万吨，ABARES澳菜籽25/26年产量料为720万吨-20251203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the agricultural commodity market, including the overnight and spot market conditions of various agricultural products, important fundamental information such as weather in major production areas, supply - demand dynamics at home and abroad, macro - economic news, and details on capital flows and arbitrage tracking. This provides a basis for understanding the current state and potential trends of the agricultural commodity market [1][2][12] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Conditions - The closing prices, previous - day and overnight percentage changes of various futures are given. For example, the closing price of BMD's February Malaysian palm oil futures was 4170.00, with a previous - day increase of 1.56% and an overnight increase of 0.31%. There are also details on the latest prices, percentage changes, and ten - day percentage changes of currency indices [1] Spot Market Conditions - For futures such as DCE's palm oil, soybean oil, and soybean meal in 2026, the spot prices, basis, and basis changes in different regions are provided. Additionally, CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans from different regions are presented [2] Important Fundamental Information Production Area Weather - In Brazil, the soil moisture in the southern part is suitable, but the decreasing rainfall frequency is causing a slow drying process. In Argentina, the soybean - growing conditions are uneven due to intermittent heavy rainfall and drought. Malaysia's flood risk is expected to subside, which is beneficial for palm oil production [5][6] International Trade and Supply - Demand - Malaysia's November palm oil exports decreased by 39.21% compared to the previous month. FGV and Felda may face production decline due to an order to evacuate plantations. Indonesia's palm oil exports from January to October 2025 increased by 7.83% compared to the same period in 2024. India's November palm oil imports increased by 4.6% to 630,000 tons, while soybean oil and sunflower oil imports decreased [7][8] Domestic Supply - Demand - On December 2, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 45% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal increased, and the national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate decreased by 2.90%. The national soybean oil port inventory increased by 1.2 million tons [14] Macro - Economic News International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 89.2%. The OECD predicts that the Fed will cut interest rates twice by the end of 2026. There are also data on API crude oil inventory in the US, CPI and unemployment rate in the Eurozone [16][17] Domestic News - On December 2, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0794, with the yuan depreciating. The central bank conducted 156.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 145.8 billion yuan. In November, the central bank's net investment in public treasury bond trading was 50 billion yuan [19] Capital Flows - On December 2, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 8.115 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net outflow of 257 million yuan, while stock index futures had a net outflow of 7.923 billion yuan and treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 86 million yuan [22] Arbitrage Tracking - No relevant information provided