供给地域性收紧，铅价或止跌企稳：有色金属周报-铅-20251203

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lead is regionally tightened, and the price of lead may stop falling and stabilize. The raw materials of lead, including lead concentrate and waste batteries, are facing different situations. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and the cost - support of waste batteries has loosened. On the supply side, the start - up rates of both primary and secondary lead have declined. On the demand side, the terminal market is differentiated, and the overall start - up rate of batteries has increased. The import profit window has opened, and the social inventory of lead ingots has decreased [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - Price Changes: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.59% to 16,975 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead decreased by 0.44% to 17,090 yuan/ton, and the closing price of LME lead (electronic disk) decreased by 0.40% to 1,981 US dollars/ton [12]. - Basis: The TC quotation of lead concentrate is stable with a weakening trend. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 135 US dollars/dry ton. The profit of smelters is good, with a profit of 452.1 yuan/ton as of November 28 [35]. 2. Primary Lead - Processing Fee and Profit: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 135 US dollars/dry ton. The TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. The smelter's profit (excluding by - product benefits such as zinc and copper) was 452.1 yuan/ton as of November 28 [35]. - Start - up Rate: The start - up rate of primary lead decreased to 65.32% on a month - on - month basis [36]. - Production and Maintenance Arrangements: The total weekly production of primary lead decreased from 49,550 tons in the week of November 21 to 46,410 tons this week. Some enterprises had maintenance, resulting in production cuts [41]. 3. Secondary Lead - Raw Material Price and Cost Support: As of November 28, the average price of waste batteries was 9,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The cost support has loosened [48]. - Profit: The comprehensive profit of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was 220 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was 12 yuan/ton as of November 28. The profit improved in the second half of the week as the lead price rebounded [54]. - Inventory and Start - up Rate: The raw material inventory of secondary lead increased, and the finished product inventory decreased. The start - up rate of secondary lead enterprises decreased by 2 percentage points to 48.5% [57][60]. 4. Lead Batteries - The start - up rate of lead batteries increased by 2.83 percentage points to 73.39%. The terminal market is differentiated. The electric bicycle battery market is weakening, while the automobile battery market is in the replacement peak season [67]. 5. Import and Export - As of November 28, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 3,200 yuan/ton, and the import was profitable at 143.13 yuan/ton, indicating that the import profit window has opened [78]. 6. Lead Ingot Inventory - As of November 27, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five places was 3.5 tons, showing a decline. The warehouse inventory of the main deliverable brands of primary lead was 9,100 tons, showing a month - on - month increase. As of November 28, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 3.78 tons, showing a decrease, and the LME inventory was 26.09 tons, also showing a decrease [88][93]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the production, export, import, consumption, and inventory data of primary and secondary lead from July 2024 to August 2025 [94].