月度策略：平稳收官，高股息防御与科技成长布局-20251203

Macro Environment - Economic data for November shows weak recovery in investment and consumption, with exports declining due to high base effects and holiday impacts. However, CPI has turned positive year-on-year, and the decline in PPI has narrowed, indicating signs of mild recovery in prices. The export structure has improved, with high-tech product exports showing strong resilience [6][10][12] - The central bank's third-quarter monetary policy report emphasizes maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions and supporting "stable growth" through counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments. Various government departments have introduced policies to stimulate domestic demand and private investment [6][11][67] Market and Industry Performance Bond Market Review - In November, the bond futures market faced pressure, with the ten-year main contract falling by 0.67% and the thirty-year bond dropping by 1.84%. This decline was influenced by three factors: cooling expectations for rate cuts, credit concerns stemming from the Vanke bond incident, and a weakening of the traditional "stock-bond seesaw" effect. The outlook for December suggests a stabilization in the ten-year bond futures, transitioning into a slight oscillation pattern [6][45][67] Stock Market Review - The equity market in November continued to favor value over growth, with the performance of various sectors showing mixed results. The consumption sector rose by 1.02%, while technology and advanced manufacturing sectors saw declines of 3.5% and 3.41%, respectively. The overall market sentiment indicates a cautious approach among investors [6][51][57] Industry Performance - The top-performing industries in November included comprehensive (4.07%), banking (2.99%), and textile and apparel (2.95%). Conversely, the worst performers were pharmaceutical biology (-3.62%), non-bank financials (-3.81%), and electronics (-5.04%) [57][64] Monthly Allocation Recommendations - Looking ahead to December, the easing of US-China trade relations and key policy meetings are expected to influence market risk appetite. A balanced investment strategy is recommended, focusing on high-dividend defensive assets like banks and utilities, while also considering the improved valuation attractiveness of TMT and AI sectors following November's adjustments [6][67]