Huachuang Securities·2025-12-03 08:15Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [22]. Core Insights - The insurance index rose by 0.21% this week, underperforming the market by 1.43 percentage points. Individual stock performances varied, with AIA up by 4.95% and China Pacific down by 3.5% [2]. - The report highlights that the risk associated with real estate investments by insurance companies is expected to be manageable, with a focus on the debt extension of Vanke [2][5]. - The report anticipates that while performance may fluctuate in the short term due to equity market trends, a growth trend is expected to continue into 2025, although 2026 may see performance pressure from investment factors [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The insurance index's absolute performance over the last month is 0.8%, with a 6-month performance of 13.7% and a 12-month performance of 12.8% [8]. - The relative performance against the benchmark shows a 2.2% outperformance over one month, but underperformance of -5.5% over six months and -3.2% over twelve months [8]. Company Analysis - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates for key companies, with China Life at 6.34 CNY for 2025E and China Pacific at 5.68 CNY for the same year. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies are also provided, with China Life at 6.89x and China Pacific at 6.20x [11]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratios indicate that China Life has a PB of 1.97, while China Pacific has a PB of 1.12, both rated as "Recommended" [11]. Real Estate Investment Risk - The report analyzes the exposure of listed insurance companies to real estate investments, noting that the overall exposure remains relatively small compared to total investment assets. For instance, Ping An's real estate investment exposure is 3.5%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous year [5]. - The report indicates that the increase in real estate investment exposure for China Pacific is primarily due to a rise in investment properties [5]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term outlook suggests that improvements in life insurance costs may drive valuation recovery, with a shift towards dividend insurance and easing solvency requirements expected to enhance long-term investment returns [5].