Report Title - The report is titled "Grease Weekly Market Observation" [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - From November 24 - 28, the palm oil and soybean oil in the grease sector rebounded, while rapeseed oil fluctuated. Palm oil is expected to have short - term volatile rebounds; soybean oil and rapeseed oil are expected to run in a short - term volatile manner [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Malaysia's palm oil production increased with a narrowing growth rate and weak exports. From November 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's crude palm oil production increased by 3.24% compared to the same period last month. From November 1 - 25, different institutions showed a decline in palm oil exports compared to the same period last month. SGS estimated a 40.77% decrease, ITS showed an 18.8% decrease, and AmSpec showed a 16.4% decrease [3] - In September 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 3.932 million tons, a 22.32% month - on - month decrease; palm kernel oil production was 366,000 tons, a 23.9% month - on - month decrease. Domestic consumption was 2.053 million tons, a 2.24% month - on - month decrease, and exports were 2.2 million tons, a 36.65% month - on - month sharp decline [4] - The implementation of the EU's Zero Deforestation Act was postponed by one year. Large operators and traders must comply from December 30, 2026, and small and micro - enterprises from June 30, 2027, which boosted palm oil prices [4] - The US biodiesel policy is uncertain. The US government is considering postponing the proposed cut in import biofuel subsidies by one to two years [4] 3.2 Fundamental Observation 3.2.1 Supply - No new information on supply other than production data in the market review section 3.2.2 Demand - As of November 28, the total trading volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key domestic oil mills was 8,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 600 tons, with domestic demand mainly for rigid needs. The weekly trading volume of domestic soybean oil was 75,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 30,500 tons. The pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 230 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons [7] 3.2.3 Inventory - As of November 28, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 653,500 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week decrease; the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.1788 million tons, a 0.09% week - on - week decrease, still under pressure; the rapeseed oil inventory was 365,200 tons, a 3.13% week - on - week decrease [8] 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - As of November 28, the CIF price of Malaysian - produced palm oil was $1,051 per ton; the import cost was 8,884 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 136 yuan per ton [9] 3.2.5 Purchase and Production - From November 22 - 28, 2025, there were no new palm oil purchases or cancellations in China. As of November 28, the actual soybean crushing volume in oil mills was 220.08 tons, the operating rate was 60.54%, the soybean oil production was 41,815.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,400 tons, and domestic soybean supply was relatively abundant. The production of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 0 tons as of November 28, and the crushing situation in December is to be observed after the arrival of Australian rapeseeds [10] 3.3 Conclusion - Palm oil: Recent increased precipitation and floods in Southeast Asia have raised concerns about production and transportation. The postponement of the European Zero Forest Act has boosted palm oil prices. However, weak exports and potential inventory increases may suppress prices. In China, inventory is slightly down but still at a relatively high level, with short - term volatile rebounds expected. Indonesia plans to lower palm oil export taxes in December [12] - Soybean oil: China continues to purchase US soybeans, and the termination of import licenses for 5 Brazilian companies has supported the cost. Domestically, soybean supply is abundant, oil mill operating rates are high but decreasing, and soybean oil inventory is slightly down but still under pressure. Exports increased significantly in October. Attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy, with short - term volatile operation expected [12] - Rapeseed oil: China maintains anti - dumping policies against Canada, and the relationship between the two countries has not progressed. Domestic rapeseed inventory is at a low level, oil mills are shut down, rapeseed oil production is 0, and inventory is continuously decreasing. After the arrival of Australian rapeseeds, attention should be paid to customs clearance and crushing, with short - term volatile operation expected [12] 3.4 Spot Prices - As of November 28, the spot price of Zhangjiagang's fourth - grade soybean oil was 8,530 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 90 yuan per ton; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan per ton; the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Nantong was 10,070 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 90 yuan per ton [14] 3.5 Malaysia's Palm Oil Data (October) - Production: In October 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 2.044 million tons, a 11.02% month - on - month increase. The production in the Malay Peninsula, Sarawak, and Sabah all increased [16] - Inventory: In October, the inventory was 2.46 million tons, a 4.44% month - on - month increase, and it was at a high level compared to the same period last year [17] - Exports: In October, the export volume was 1.6929 million tons, a 18.58% month - on - month increase [20] - Consumption: Malaysia's domestic consumption was 282,400 tons, a 15.58% month - on - month decrease, falling back to the normal range [21] 3.6 India's Palm Oil Import (October) - India imported 602,300 tons of palm oil in October 2025, a 27% month - on - month decrease of 226,600 tons, and it was at a low level compared to the same period last year [24] 3.7 China's Palm Oil Data - As of November 28, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 653,500 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week decrease. In October, the import volume was 220,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons [27] - In October, palm oil consumption was 228,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23,200 tons, and it was at a low level compared to the same period last year [29] - As of November 28, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 171 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week increase (the specific increase amount is missing in the text) [32] 3.8 China's Soybean Oil Data - As of November 28, the oil mill operating rate dropped to 60.54%, the soybean oil production was 41,815.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,384 tons, and it was still at a high level compared to the same period last year [34] - As of November 28, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1.1788 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 110 tons, still under pressure [35] - In October, the soybean oil export volume was 70,900 tons, a 36.45% month - on - month increase [36] 3.9 China's Rapeseed Oil Data - As of November 28, the rapeseed inventory dropped to 0 tons, the crushing plant operating rate was 0%, the rapeseed crushing volume was 0 tons, and the rapeseed oil production in coastal oil mills was 0 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory was 365,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,800 tons, and the inventory was accelerating its decline [38]
油脂周度行情观察-20251203
Hong Ye Qi Huo·2025-12-03 09:17