上下震荡，大豆缺乏指引

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The market for soybeans and soybean meal is in a state of oscillation. Domestic soybeans have a slight reduction in production, with Northeast soybeans being popular due to quality differentiation. The import of US soybeans may return to normal, ensuring sufficient soybean supply. Oil mills' operating rates are average, and soybean meal inventory remains high, while demand is strong. The soybean No. 1 contract will return to an oscillatory state, and soybean meal will maintain an oscillatory trend [5][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The soybeans No. 1 2601 contract continues to oscillate. The spot price is stable, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans around 4,060 yuan/ton. The basis of soybeans No. 1 oscillates strongly, and the premium on the futures market is maintained. - The main soybean meal contract is shifting to 2605, showing an oscillatory trend. The spot price of soybean meal has a slight increase, with the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang rising from 2,980 yuan/ton to around 3,020 yuan/ton. The basis oscillates strongly, and the premium on the futures market narrows [5] 3.2 Domestic Soybean Sales and Supply - The sales of domestic soybeans are relatively fast. The production of new - season domestic soybeans has slightly decreased to 20.9 million tons, and the quality in North China and other regions is differentiated, with high - protein soybeans in the Northeast being popular. As of November 28, the remaining grain ratio of soybeans in Heilongjiang has dropped to 74%, in Anhui to 73%, in Henan to 76%, and in Shandong to 81%. Recently, the auction of state - reserve soybeans has been suspended [5] 3.3 Import and Inventory of Soybeans - The arrival of soybeans at oil mills is high, and the port soybean inventory is sufficient. In October, China imported 9.48 million tons of soybeans, a 26% decrease from the previous month and a 17.2% increase year - on - year. Under the China - US trade agreement, the import of US soybeans will return to normal. Although China and the US have mutually reduced tariffs, a 10% basic tariff remains, so the import cost of US soybeans is still higher than that of South American soybeans. As of November 28, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills was 2.405 million tons, increasing again compared to the previous period; the port soybean inventory was 9.576 million tons, rebounding compared to the previous period [5] 3.4 US Soybean Market - US soybeans are undergoing high - level adjustments. The November supply - demand report of the US Department of Agriculture has reduced the yield per unit and total production of US soybeans, as well as the ending inventory. The production in South America has not been adjusted, and the global ending inventory has been further reduced. The market is worried about China's subsequent soybean purchases [5] 3.5 Oil Mill Operations and Soybean Meal Inventory - The operating rate of oil mills has declined, but the soybean meal inventory has increased again. As of November 28, the operating rate of oil mills was 60.54%, a decline compared to the previous period but still at a high level in recent years; the soybean crushing volume was 2.2008 million tons; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 7.3396 million tons, rebounding compared to the previous period. The soybean meal production was 1.7386 million tons, a decline compared to the previous period; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.2032 million tons, increasing again compared to the previous period and at a high level in recent years; the unexecuted contracts of soybean meal were 3.881 million tons, a decline compared to the previous period. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 8.17 days, rebounding compared to the previous period [6] 3.6 Feed Demand - Feed demand is relatively strong. In the livestock farming sector, the pig price is low, and farming is suffering significant losses. As of November 28, the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was - 248.82 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 147.99 yuan per head. The adjustment of the breeding sow capacity is slow. In September, the national inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous month. The adjustment of the breeding sow inventory in large - scale farms is delayed, with a slight increase in the inventory in October; the number of piglets born has increased again, while the sales volume has continued to decline, reflecting a weak mentality of replenishing the herd; the number of pigs held for fattening and secondary fattening has increased. At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million, a 29% increase from the previous quarter and a 23% increase year - on - year. In the poultry sector, the egg price has dropped again, and farming continues to suffer losses, with an increase in the number of culled poultry. The inventory in October decreased slightly from the previous month and may continue to decline in the fourth quarter. In October, the feed production was 29.07 million tons, a decline from the previous month but a 6% increase year - on - year; feed demand remains strong [7]