产业矛盾未解，上行驱动难续

Group 1: Core View - Manganese silicon prices rebounded from a low level due to improved market sentiment, but the supply contraction at a high level is limited while the demand continues to weaken. The supply - demand pattern is difficult to improve, the industrial contradictions accumulate, and the fundamental weakness remains unchanged. The upward driving force of manganese silicon prices is not strong, and once the market logic returns to the industrial side, the prices will be under pressure again. A breakthrough requires the introduction of industrial clearance policies [5][58] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Price Movement - Since December, the futures and spot prices of manganese silicon have rebounded from a low level, especially the futures price. As of December 3, the futures price of the main manganese silicon contract reached a maximum of 5,786 yuan/ton, up nearly 200 yuan from the previous low. The spot price also increased, with a range of 20 - 90 yuan in the mainstream areas, and the basis weakened again [9] - The recent rapid rise in manganese silicon prices is a catch - up increase, mainly due to the low - level rebound of steel futures prices boosting the sentiment in the ferrous metal market. Since mid - November, the rebar futures price has been rising, and the 2601 contract has been relatively strong, with a cumulative increase of over 130 yuan from the low level [12] Group 3: Supply Situation - Manganese silicon production decreased in November 2025. The output was 848,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 66,900 tons or 7.31%, but still higher than the same period last year. Most regions saw a decline in production, with Yunnan having the largest reduction [17] - As of the week of November 28, the operating rate of 187 independent manganese silicon enterprises was 38.09%, and the daily output was 27,825 tons, down 4.90% and 1,850 tons respectively from the end of last month. Although the operating rate is significantly lower than last year, the output is similar to the same period last year [19] - The factory inventory of manganese silicon has been rising at a high level. As of the week of November 28, the total factory inventory was 368,000 tons, an increase of 53,500 tons from the end of last month, hitting a new high. All regions saw inventory accumulation, with the main production areas having the largest increase [27] - In 2025, the planned production projects of manganese silicon totaled more than 3.5 million tons. After removing the replacement capacity, the actual new capacity was as high as 6.665 million tons, and the oversupply pattern remained unchanged [33] Group 4: Demand Situation - Steel mill production weakened, and the demand for manganese silicon decreased. The blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills were 81.09% and 87.98% respectively, down 0.66% and 0.63% from the end of last month. The output of the five major steel products decreased by 2.24%, and the demand for manganese silicon decreased by 2.22% [36] - The profitability of steel mills continued to deteriorate. As of the week of November 28, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 sample steel mills was 35.06%, a continuous decline since mid - August. The demand for raw materials such as manganese silicon was affected [37] - Steel mills' willingness to replenish inventory actively at the end of the year was not strong. The number of days of available manganese silicon inventory in November was 15.84 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.14 days. Most regions' inventory levels were higher than the same period last year [43] Group 5: Cost Situation - Due to the weak downward trend of manganese silicon prices, the losses of production enterprises increased. As of December 2, the production costs of manganese silicon in the northern and southern regions were 5,838 yuan/ton and 6,208 yuan/ton respectively. The losses per ton in the northern and southern regions were 312 yuan and 678 yuan respectively [46] - The cost support effect is weakening. Coke prices have increased, while port manganese ore prices have been stable. If production enterprises reduce production, the prices of related raw materials will be affected, and the cost will decline, which may drag down the manganese silicon price [49]