玉米淀粉日报-20251203

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. corn price is rising, and the yield per unit is expected to be further adjusted downward, but the production remains at a high level, with the U.S. corn showing a narrow - range oscillation. The import profit of foreign corn is declining. The spot price of corn in the northern ports of China is rising, and the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is relatively strong, while that in North China is weakening. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn is narrowing. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and some feed enterprises are building inventories in the Northeast. The 01 - contract corn showed a trend of rising first and then falling, and the spot basis strengthened. The 01 - contract corn has limited room for rebound [4][7][8]. - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong's deep - processing plants has increased, the spot price of corn in Shandong is weakening, and the spot price of starch in Northeast China is relatively strong. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The current starch price depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is relatively strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. The 01 - contract starch fluctuated strongly following corn, but the corn price in North China may still decline in December, and the spot price of corn starch is also expected to fall [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures Disk - For corn futures, the closing prices of C2601, C2605, and C2509 are 2259, 2289, and 2304 respectively, with increases of 16, 9, and 17, and increases of 0.71%, 0.39%, and 0.74% respectively. The trading volumes are 761,132, 128,716, and 8,806 respectively, with increases of 43.99%, 32.16%, and 27.07% respectively. The open interests are 905,398, 389,799, and 25,069 respectively, with changes of - 2.38%, 3.75%, and 3.02% respectively [2]. - For corn starch futures, the closing prices of CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509 are 2562, 2618, and 2647 respectively, with increases of 16, 11, and 11, and increases of 0.62%, 0.42%, and 0.42% respectively. The trading volumes are 121,079, 6,936, and 267 respectively, with changes of 15.88%, - 48.40%, and - 29.74% respectively. The open interests are 225,949, 8,925, and 1,251 respectively, with changes of - 1.04%, 1.17%, and - 5.51% respectively [2]. 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - For corn, the spot prices in Qinggang, Songyuan Jiajie, Zhucheng Xingmao, Shouguang, Jinzhou Port, Nantong Port, and Guangdong Port are 2035, 2130, 2354, 2298, 2290, 2400, and 2470 respectively, with changes of 10, 0, - 6, - 6, 0, 0, and 0 respectively. The basis is - 269, - 174, 50, - 6, 31, 96, and 166 respectively [2]. - For starch, the spot prices of Longfeng, COFCO, Jiajie, Yufeng, Jinyu, Zhucheng Xingmao, and Hengren Industry and Trade are 2680, 2700, 2800, 2890, 2820, 2880, and 2760 respectively, with changes of 0, 0, 0, 0, - 30, - 20, and - 10 respectively. The basis is 62, 82, 182, 272, 202, 262, and 142 respectively [2]. 3.1.3 Price Spreads - For corn inter - delivery spreads, C01 - C05 is - 30 with a change of 7, C05 - C09 is - 15 with a change of - 8, and C09 - C01 is 45 with a change of 1. - For starch inter - delivery spreads, CS01 - CS05 is - 56 with a change of 5, CS05 - CS09 is - 29 with a change of 0, and CS09 - CS01 is 85 with a change of - 5. - For cross - variety spreads, CS09 - C09 is 343 with a change of - 6, CS01 - C01 is 303 with a change of 0, and CS05 - C05 is 329 with a change of 2 [2]. 3.2 Market Outlook and Judgment - Corn: The U.S. corn price is rising, and the yield per unit is expected to be further adjusted downward, but the production remains high, showing a narrow - range oscillation. The import profit of foreign corn is falling, and the FOB price at northern ports in China is rising. The spot price of corn in the Northeast is relatively strong, while that in North China is weakening. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn is narrowing. The wheat price in North China is relatively strong, and the price difference between wheat and corn is still large, making corn cost - effective. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and some feed enterprises are building inventories in the Northeast. The 01 - contract corn showed a trend of rising first and then falling, and the spot basis strengthened. Currently, the market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn in mid - to - late December and the downstream inventory - building situation [4][7][8]. - Starch: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong's deep - processing plants has increased, the spot price of corn in Shandong is weakening, and the spot price of starch in Northeast China is relatively strong. This week, the inventory of corn starch decreased to 105.4 million tons, a decrease of 1.5 million tons from last week, a monthly decrease of 1.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.61%. The current starch price depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is relatively strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. The 01 - contract starch fluctuated strongly following corn, but the corn price in North China may still decline in December, and the spot price of corn starch is also expected to fall [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The U.S. corn has support at 400 cents per bushel. For the 01 - contract corn, short positions can be lightly established on rallies, and for the 05 - contract corn, continue to wait [9]. - Arbitrage: Try to narrow the price spread between the 01 - contract corn and starch on rallies [9]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option Strategy: Adopt a short - put strategy in the short term and conduct rolling operations [10]. 3.5 Relevant Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the spot price of corn in various regions, the basis of the 01 - contract corn, the 1 - 5 price spreads of corn and corn starch, the basis of the 01 - contract corn starch, and the price spread between the 01 - contract corn starch and corn [15][17][20].