瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20251203

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, methanol port inventory decreased slightly. With the support of reverse flow and trans - shipment, the提货 volume in the mainstream warehouses in East China remained stable, while the inventory in the mainstream warehouses in South China continued to decline. Next week, the expected arrival of foreign vessels is at a high level, and an olefin plant in East China is expected to shut down. The import demand may weaken, and port methanol inventory is expected to increase. [2] - The operating rate of the olefin industry increased slightly due to the rising load of olefin enterprises in East China. After the restart of the Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant, the load is expected to continue to rise in the short - term. [2] - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2050 - 2150 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2128 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of methanol was - 86 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton. [2] - The position volume of the main methanol contract was 948,396 lots, a decrease of 30,173 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 180,854 lots, an increase of 15,188 lots. [2] - The number of methanol warehouse receipts was 5,800, an increase of 2,000. [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2115 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton. The price in Inner Mongolia was 2000 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. [2] - The price spread between East China and Northwest China was 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 17 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton. [2] - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 249 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton. The CFR price in Southeast Asia was 317 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 257 euros/ton, a decrease of 3 euros/ton. The price spread between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 68 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.83 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.06 US dollars. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 93.88 tons, an increase of 0.13 tons. The inventory in South China ports was 41.06 tons, a decrease of 1.54 tons. [2] - The import profit of methanol was - 26.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.89 yuan/ton. The import volume in the current month was 161.26 tons, an increase of 18.57 tons. [2] - The inventory of domestic enterprises was 361,500 tons, a decrease of 12,200 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises was 89.09%, an increase of 0.32%. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 42.98%, an increase of 0.97%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was 7.88%, an increase of 2.19%. [2] - The operating rate of acetic acid was 73.06%, an increase of 3.47%. The operating rate of MTBE was 69.97%, unchanged. [2] - The operating rate of olefins was 89.93%, an increase of 0.28%. The on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 802 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton. [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 19.87%, a decrease of 0.57%. The 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 20.52%, a decrease of 0.03%. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 18.62%, a decrease of 1.05%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 18.61%, a decrease of 1.06%. [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 3, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 36.15 tons, a decrease of 1.22 tons or 3.26% compared with the previous period. The pending orders of sample enterprises were 23.97 tons, an increase of 0.90 tons or 3.90% compared with the previous period. [2] - As of December 3, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 134.94 tons, a decrease of 1.41 tons compared with the previous data. East China saw inventory accumulation, while South China saw inventory reduction. [2] - As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 91.01%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. [2]