Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-03 10:06Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Wednesday, the RB2605 contract fluctuated within a range. The annual bond issuance of local governments exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time, with the issuance scale reaching about 10.1 trillion yuan as of December 2nd. The weekly output of rebar decreased slightly and remained at a low level. Apparent demand declined slightly, but inventory continued to decrease. Overall, the supply and demand of rebar were both weak, but the positive macro - expectations still affected steel prices, and the mainstream positions were bullish. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were consolidating at high levels. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,169 yuan/ton, unchanged; the position volume was 1,297,106 lots, an increase of 121,547 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 20,049 lots, an increase of 26,388 lots. The RB1 - 5 contract spread was - 32 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan. The RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 65,741 tons, unchanged. The HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread was 155 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,330 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,415 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 161 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 10 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 798 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,690 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,990 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 15,206.07 million tons, an increase of 155.19 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 44.95 million tons, an increase of 1.62 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 625.53 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan was 114.76 million tons, a decrease of 1.34 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.07%, a decrease of 1.10%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 87.96%, a decrease of 0.60%. The output of rebar at sample steel mills was 206.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.88 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 45.18%, a decrease of 0.41%. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 146.73 million tons, a decrease of 6.59 million tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 384.75 million tons, a decrease of 15.27 million tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 68.75%, a decrease of 1.04%. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 7,200 million tons, a decrease of 149 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1,475 million tons, an increase of 41 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 928 million tons, a decrease of 64 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate prosperity index was 92.43, a decrease of 0.34. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was - 1.70%, a decrease of 1.20%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 14.70%, a decrease of 0.80%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was - 0.10%, a decrease of 1.20%. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 652,939 million square meters, a decrease of 4,359 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 49,061 million square meters, a decrease of 3,662 million square meters. The inventory of commercial housing for sale was 39,645 million square meters, an increase of 292 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In November 2025, 12 steel projects started or were put into production. Projects such as Xinfeng Steel (Egypt) and Jiangxi Chongxin New Materials started; projects such as Tianjin Decai Cold - rolling, Jiugang Hongyu New Materials, and Yunnan Yukun Steel were put into production. On December 3rd at 1:30 am Beijing time, the first shipment of iron ore from the Simandou project set sail from the Port of Mariabaya in Guinea to China, with a cargo of 200,000 tons of high - grade iron ore [2]. 3.7 Key Focus - The weekly output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of rebar on Thursday are the key points to watch [2].