有色普涨，沪铜持续增仓

Report Overview - Report Title: Futures Research Report - Non-ferrous Metals Daily Report - Report Date: December 3, 2025 - Author: Long Aoming 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Macro Level: The expectation of interest rate cuts is rising, which is beneficial for non-ferrous metals. The probability of an interest rate cut in December is close to 90%, and the US dollar index is continuously weakening, approaching the 99 mark [6][7][8]. - Copper: Overnight, copper prices rose and then fell, and today they maintained a slightly stronger oscillation with a narrowing amplitude. The trading volume of Shanghai copper continued to increase. Domestically, the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased, the downstream acceptance increased, and the spot premium strengthened. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 90,000 mark [6]. - Aluminum: Today, Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly, with the trading volume continuing to increase, and approaching the 22,000 mark at the end of the session. The inventories of electrolytic aluminum at home and abroad remained stable at a low level. As the aluminum price rose, downstream buyers were hesitant due to high prices and made purchases as needed, and the spot discount remained weak. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 22,000 mark [7]. - Nickel: Overnight, Shanghai nickel decreased in volume, and today it rebounded with a decrease in volume, showing a V-shaped trend as a whole. The spot premium continued to strengthen, providing support for the futures price. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 120,000 mark [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Copper: The copper market is facing a supply shortage, and the gap may reach 30% by 2035. The expected supply shortage is due to factors such as declining ore grades, rising capital costs, and long project development cycles [10]. - Nickel: On December 3, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 117,300 - 122,700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 120,000 yuan/ton, a rise of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 4,700 - 5,000 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 4,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - Copper: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper inventory and cancellation warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][13][16][20][21]. - Aluminum: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, Shanghai-London ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [25][27][29][31][33][35]. - Nickel: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][41][43][45][47].