瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20251203

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current situation of loose supply and demand in the cotton market continues. New cotton sales progress is significantly slow, market digestion rhythm is lower than expected, and port inventory remains high. Downstream demand has no obvious improvement, new orders of textile enterprises have decreased, and the overall market trading atmosphere is weak. The short - term rebound space of cotton prices is limited. Later, attention should be paid to the improvement of actual replenishment willingness and macro - dynamics [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price was 13,780 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price was 19,925 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions were - 128,839 hands, down 3,568 hands; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions were - 447 hands, up 249 hands. - Cotton main contract positions were 522,168 hands, down 21,990 hands; cotton yarn main contract positions were 4,916 hands, down 1,081 hands. - Cotton warehouse receipts were 2,589 sheets, up 90 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 13 sheets, down 1 sheet. - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,005 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) was 20,770 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.2现货市场 - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 12,941 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) was 20,959 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM: sliding duty) was 13,937 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) was 22,214 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,765 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton was 785,000 tons, down 76,000 tons. - The monthly import volume of cotton was 90,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 140,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. - The profit of imported cotton was 1,043 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton was 2.9306 million tons, up 1.9089 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn were 26.12 days, up 1.27 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 31.97 days, up 0.85 days. - The monthly output of cloth was 2.62 billion meters, down 0.18 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn was 2.001 million tons, down 0.073 million tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 110,034,804,300 US dollars, down 14,497,665,700 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 112,584,189,200 US dollars, down 7,080,970,800 US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options was 9.53%, up 1.51%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options was 9.53%, up 1.62%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 5.96%, down 0.3%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 6.67%, down 0.64% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of October 21, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton decreased by 1,181 hands to 72,047 hands; the non - commercial short positions decreased by 4,202 hands to 134,658 hands; the net short positions decreased by 3,021 hands to 62,611 hands. - ICE cotton futures stabilized on Tuesday, rebounding after the previous day's decline, supported by bargain - hunting. The ICE March cotton futures contract fell 0.06 cents, or 0.10%, to settle at 64.57 cents per pound [2] 3.8 View Summary - The new cotton delivery is coming to an end, the cost is fixed with the price of seed cotton, but the sales progress of new cotton is significantly slow, the market digestion rhythm is lower than expected, and the port inventory remains high. The downstream demand has no obvious improvement, the new orders of textile enterprises have decreased significantly, the shipment rhythm of cotton yarn has slowed down, and the overall market trading atmosphere is weak. The current situation of loose supply and demand continues, and the short - term rebound space of cotton prices is limited [2] 3.9 Prompt Attention - Today there is no news. Later, attention should be paid to the improvement of actual replenishment willingness and macro - dynamics [2]