银河期货花生日报-20251203

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term peanut spot price is relatively stable due to supply increase and weak downstream demand, and the peanut futures will still fluctuate at a high level. The new - season peanut output is expected to be higher than last year with lower planting costs, and there is still room for the peanut 01 contract to fall [3][6] - The peanut oil spot price is stable, the peanut meal price has been stable recently, and the oil mills' theoretical pressing profit is good [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Data - Futures盘面: For PK604, the closing price is 8020, down 24 (-0.30%), with a trading volume of 32,653 (up 7.37%) and an open interest of 25,114 (up 0.66%); for PK510, the closing price is 8214, down 12 (-0.15%), with a trading volume of 122 (up 43.53%) and an open interest of 734 (up 1.66%); for PK601, the closing price is 8052, down 56 (-0.70%), with a trading volume of 72,932 (down 9.47%) and an open interest of 88,007 (down 18.61%) [1] - Spot and Basis: The spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi are 7800, 8000, and 8000 respectively, with the price in Henan Nanyang up 400. The basis for these regions are -252, -52, -52 respectively. The prices of Rizhao peanut meal, Rizhao soybean meal, peanut oil, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil are 3250, 3020, 14470, and 8510 respectively, with no price changes. The import prices of Sudanese rice and Senegalese rice are 8600 and 7600 respectively, with no price changes [1] - Spreads: The spread of PK01 - PK04 is 32, down 32; the spread of PK04 - PK10 is -194, down 12; the spread of PK10 - PK01 is 162, up 44 [1] Second Part: Market Analysis - The peanut price in Henan is stable, while that in Northeast China is weak. The price of 308 general peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin is 4.8 yuan/jin, stable; the price in Changtu, Liaoning is 4.75 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin. The price of Baisha general peanuts in Henan is 3.65 - 3.9 yuan/jin, stable; the price in Junan, Shandong is 3.4 yuan/jin, stable. The import prices of Sudanese refined rice, Senegalese rice, Brazilian new rice, and Indian specification rice are stable [3] - Some peanut oil mills have lowered their purchase prices, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 7000 - 7350 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills is 7860 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil are stable, with the domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil quoted at 14500 yuan/ton and the small - pressed fragrant peanut oil quoted at 16500 yuan/ton [3] - The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal is stable at 3010 yuan/ton. The unit protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is low, and the peanut meal is relatively strong in the short term, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3100 yuan/ton [4] Third Part: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Peanut contracts 01 and 05 will fluctuate at a high level, and short - sell peanut 01 on rallies [7] - Calendar Spread: Reverse - arbitrage the 1 - 5 spread on rallies [8] - Options: Sell the pk603 - P - 8200 option on rallies [9] Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The part provides six figures, including the Shandong peanut spot price, peanut oil mill pressing profit, peanut oil price, peanut spot and continuous contract basis, peanut 10 - 1 contract spread, and peanut 1 - 4 contract spread [11][17][18]