银河期货农产品日报-20251203

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an apple daily report in the agricultural product research report, dated December 3, 2024 [1] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji apple price index is 106.38, up 0.02 from the previous day; 6 - fruit average wholesale price is 7.30, unchanged [2] - Price of Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bag 70 is 4.15, unchanged; price of Qixia 1st and 2nd - grade paper - bag 80 is 3.75, unchanged; price of Yiyuan paper - bag 70 is 2.40, unchanged; price of Penglai 1st and 2nd - grade paper - bag 80 is 3.75, unchanged [2] Futures Prices - AP01 closes at 9484, down 4 from the previous day; AP05 closes at 9712, down 18; AP10 closes at 8645, up 136 [2] - AP01 - AP05 is - 228, up 14; AP05 - AP10 is 1067, down 154; AP10 - AP01 is - 839, up 140 [2] Basis Prices - Qixia 1st and 2nd - grade 80 - AP01 is - 1984, up 4; Qixia 1st and 2nd - grade 80 - AP05 is - 2212, up 18; Qixia 1st and 2nd - grade 80 - AP10 is - 1145.0, down 136 [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Transaction Logic - This year's apple production has declined, the quality fruit rate is poor, storage is more difficult, and market expects low cold - storage inventory data. As of November 27, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas is 766.75 million tons, down 6.41 million tons from last week and 79.5 million tons from last year. The cold - storage inventory peak this year is at a low level in the same period over the years, so the effective inventory is expected to be low, and the apple fundamentals are strong [5] Transaction Strategy - Unilateral: Although the apple fundamentals are strong, considering the high price of the January contract and high risks approaching delivery, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [8] - Options: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [8] Other Market News - As of November 27, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas is 766.75 million tons, down 6.41 million tons from last week and 79.5 million tons from last year, a decrease of 9.4% [7] - In October 2025, fresh apple imports are 0.31 million tons, down 68.09% month - on - month and up 8.54% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative imports are 11.12 million tons, up 19.18% year - on - year. In October 2025, fresh apple exports are about 8.04 million tons, up 13.51% month - on - month and down 17.04% year - on - year [7] - The apple market in the producing areas is basically stable with little price change. In Shandong, cold - storage transactions are few with only a small number of customers purchasing. In the northwest, cold - storage merchants mainly package their own goods with low procurement volume. The cold - storage shipment speed has slowed down slightly compared with last week. The market arrivals are stable and prices remain unchanged [7] - The mainstream transaction price of semi - commodity apples (70 and above) in Luochuan, Shaanxi is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per jin. The cold - storage trading volume is small, with some Northeast merchants purchasing 80 and above. The mainstream price of growers' apples is 4.5 - 5.0 yuan per jin, and that of merchants' apples is 5.5 - 6.0 yuan per jin. The mainstream purchase price of cold - storage apples (70 and above) by merchants is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per jin, and the asking price of growers is also 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per jin [7] Group 4: Relevant Attachments Figures - Figures include Qixia 1st and 2nd - grade paper - bag 80 price, Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bag 70 price, AP contract main basis, AP10 - AP01, AP05 - AP10, AP10 - AP05, total apple arrivals in Chalong, Jiangmen and Xiaqiao, 6 - fruit price, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple shipment [10][13][16][18][24] - Data sources for figures mainly include Galaxy Futures, Steel Union, and Wind Information [13][15][18]